The Illinois basketball offseason blueprint

The Illinois basketball team is riding the highest high the program has seen in over two decades. A trip to the Final Four followed a 24-win regular season, which included an extended slump.

The entire nation of hoops fans got to witness what Illini fans knew all along:

This squad played an entertaining brand of basketball.

In an era where roster turnover, NIL-induced parity, and coaching uncertainty rule the day, Illinois took its place among the contemporary college hoops powers.

With Brad Underwood at the helm, Illinois has re-established itself as a national powerhouse with no ceiling. 

This offseason will be crucial for the program.

(Aren’t they all?)

Last offseason was about taking a disappointing season, flushing it, and going all in on a sustainable philosophy.

Mission accomplished.

So how can the Illini stay at the big boy table? Here are some factors I’m watching.

We’ll get to the NBA Draft early departures, but can we talk about Kylan Boswell for a moment

Boswell meant a lot to his hometown program. He, defensively, put multiple opposing guards in straitjackets with his stellar defense. His outside shot may have waxed and waned, but his effort, leadership, intelligence, and defense were never in doubt. He never took a play off.

(You can see what kind of practice player he is by watching his attention to detail on the court.)

In a league where Tyus and Tre Jones have had long NBA careers, Boswell projects to be a long-term NBA backup guard with his 6-foot-7 wingspan.

Lead guards like Villanova transfer Acaden Lewis and Kentucky transfer Jasper Johnson are available. 

They will be expensive.

But a veteran floor general would help the true freshmen guards ease into college the way Boswell did for Keaton Wagler.

One does not simply replace a Keaton Wagler-sized hole in their roster

But Underwood and company will be tasked with doing just that.

Wagler’s freshman season will likely lead to a one-and-done legacy as one of the best Big Ten freshmen in modern history. 

He has the height, discipline, shot selection, and maturity that NBA teams covet and will likely be a lottery selection this June.

Wagler averaged 18 points with a 54% effective field goal percentage and a 40% rate from behind the three-point arc. It’s unreasonable to expect any player, freshman or otherwise, to repeat that level of efficiency and productivity. 

So no matter how talented Quentin Coleman is or how smart and skilled Lucas Morillo is, expecting a Wagler-like explosion is irrational.

But Illinois can recreate Wagler in the aggregate, Moneyball style.

While there is no easy fix, there are some players who, when paired with Illinois’ current and incoming talent, could bring that dependable perimeter threat. And the Illinois system could open up significant opportunities for increased efficiency. 

With less pressure to be “the guy,” Stefan Vaaks could see an efficiency spike if he chooses Champaign. He converted on 35% of his threes and scored 16 points per game. 

Vaaks had a successful freshman campaign in the Big East.

He’s Baltic and not Balkan, but he would be a plug-and-play replacement in case the great retention fails (more on that later).

Vaaks can improve his efficiency in an offense where he will get more open looks.

Juke Harris is a bucket getter. He’s got excellent positional size at 6-foot-7. It’s easy to dream on an Illini lineup that features Morillo/Andrej Stojakovic/Harris/David Mirkovic/The Ivisic of your choice.

That’s floor-spacing and positional size. That’s booty ball, downhill attacks, and gold medal shots. It is mismatch hunting and high basketball IQ.

Harris will be one of the more sought-after prospects in the transfer portal. As an ACC star, it’s easy to imagine blue-blood programs aggressively pursuing him. Did Illinois’ Final Four run do enough to make an impact?

Speaking of the Illinois blueprint, Neoklis Avdalas was made in a lab to play in Tyler Underwood’s offensive system. At 6-foot-9, he can trigger Illinois’ offense from any point in the halfcourt. He can hunt matchup advantages with both smaller players and slower ones. Surround him with stars, and there is massive potential for an efficient path to stardom in the Big Ten.

In Illinois’ system with elite spacing and multiple scoring threats, Avdalas could improve on his 31.6% clip from behind the three-point arc. Furthermore, his versatility and skill mesh well on a switchable, positionless Illinois roster.

Speaking of versatile stars with Greek heritage. Now we get to the crux of the mission.

The Great Retention is real, and it is necessary

Illinois has built a tremendous culture. It goes beyond success on the court. 

You’ve all heard the podcast that refers to the “Real Housewives of Champaign” in reference to the dramatic machinations of Illinois offseasons. It is also a slight nod to the perception of internal discord amongst the roster in previous years.

While high profile departures have forced the program to rebuild the roster on the fly, a way of being has permeated the program in recent years. 

It’s been preserved by Ty Rodgers sticking by the program despite being deprioritized due to shooting ability, through a redshirt, and up to a surprising return for this season. And despite his injuries, he was a steady rock in the storm of epic proportions. Rodgers is the definition of an Every Day Guy, and if he were to leave Illinois, his impact on the program would be felt regardless.

(I will never forget his Rodman-like rebounding runs during the 2024 Big Ten Tournament.)

It has also been preserved by AJ Redd. Redd is a standout in the classroom. He was a standout in the classroom at the elite St. Ignatius College Prep in Chicago’s Little Italy. He came to Illinois to be a student manager and left with a Finance degree and the most memorable senior night performance in recent memory. His consistency, maturity, and passion bled through and impacted everyone in the program.

Now, it’s the turn of the core four, plus Jake Davis, potential departures whose on-court impact could make Illinois a title contender again.

Mirkovic, Stojakovic, Tomislav Ivisic, and Zvonimir Ivisic have the chance to return to Champaign as conquering heroes with established legacies. One more run, and they can ascend to new heights for a basketball-hungry fandom waiting to embrace another generation of stars.

All four have clearly defined roles if they choose to return. All four fit seamlessly around incoming impact freshmen Morillo and Coleman. All four can make an impact on both ends of the floor.

Yes, Stojakovic has to be more consistent over the course of a long season, especially from three-point range.

Tomislav Ivisic has to up his aggression levels, especially when he’s feeling it in the low post.

Sure, Zvonimir Ivisic could be a more consistent shooter, and Mirkovic could be a more impactful defender, like he was against Connecticut.

But all four young men would be massive retentions for a program looking to cement what it has established and build upon what it accomplished. 

Finally, speaking of the build…

Staff retention is going to be a thing this offseason too

Illinois has been able to handle two different assistant coach exoduses in the Underwood era. 

There was the Orlando Antigua/Chin Coleman/Stephen Gentry departure of 2021, followed by the Tim Anderson/Chester Frazier exit after the 2023-24 season.

Through it all, Underwood has kept the program at a high level. The presence of ace recruiters and sophisticated Xs and Os thinkers has helped keep the talent pipeline overflowing even when results were suboptimal.

This offseason, there will be great attention paid to members of the Illini staff.

Will an in-state head coaching opening catch the eye of Geoff Alexander? He’s well-connected in the state of Illinois, and his international connections could help a mid-major program establish a sustainable talent pipeline.

With the opening of the North Carolina head coaching job and the potential for Kansas to do the same next year, top assistant coaches will be poached left and right. Does this mean Antigua will be on the move again? He will certainly be contacted. 

In both cases, Josh Whitman has demonstrated a commitment to keep them in Orange & Blue. The financial and personnel resources are top-of-industry. That support is unlikely to change.

Tyler Underwood’s innovative offense is getting attention from across the hoops landscape. Will a forward-thinking NBA franchise try and poach the younger Underwood (Youngerwood?) to join their staff and improve their offense?

And since we’re talking about it, no, Brad Underwood is not leaving Champaign for Manhattan, Kansas.