We are coming down to the end of the regular season, and the Illinois basketball program has a ton to play for at this point.
The Illini have dropped four out of the last six games, but we are still right there in the running for one of the top seeds in the NCAA tournament.
With the recent losing trend, Illinois has put themselves in a tight spot. Another loss in the final two games would drop us out of the top four spots, which means we would lose the coveted triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
At this point, I think Illinois is set up pretty well for a top-four spot, though. With the way things are shaking out, there is a strong chance that there is a three-way tie for the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
Nebraska has an easy schedule to finish out the season, so they are likely to finish 16-4 in the Big Ten. That locks them into the No. 2 seed.
That leaves Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue duking it out for the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, with the loser out of this landing in the No. 5 spot.
The Spartans have at Indiana, Rutgers, and at No. 3 Michigan left. That is a 2-1 run for them, most likely. Purdue has at Ohio State, at Northwestern, and Wisconsin. That means they are likely to go 3-0 in that stretch. Illinois then has Oregon and at Maryland. That is 2-0 for the Illini.
When the dust settles from those games, Michigan State would move to 15-5. Purdue’s 3-0 puts them at 15-5. And Illinois’ two-game winning streak to end the season gets us to 15-5. That makes a three-way tie for third in the conference.
The tie-breaker for that scenario is the best winning percentage for each program against the other two teams. Michigan State is 2-0 against Illinois and Purdue. They would get the No. 3 seed. The Illini beat Purdue, so we are 1-1 in this scenario. The Boilermakers are 0-2. That gives Illinois the No. 4 seed and the triple-bye.
The NCAA tournament selection committee might essentially have a play-in game for the No. 2 seed
This scenario seems like the most likely thing to happen in the next week. It would also set up a potentially intriguing matchup in the fourth round.
So, the No. 12 vs No. 13 seeds play each other in the second round. The winner of that game would then get No. 5 Purdue. The Boilermakers are likely to clean up in that contest. This would enable Purdue to face No. 4 Illinois.
What could end up happening with this scenario is that the matchup between No. 4 Illinois and No. 5 Purdue is essentially a play-in game for the final No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Joe Lunardi just updated his NCAA tournament projection on Saturday afternoon. He has Purdue as the last No. 2 seed in the postseason right now. Lunardi also dropped the Illini to the No. 3 seed, and we are the top No. 3 seed.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 28, 2026
The matchup in the fourth round of the Big Ten Tournament could be pretty important for seeding. A No. 2 seed would give Illinois an easier path to, at least, the second weekend in the NCAA tournament.
There is clearly a ton to still play for before the NCAA tournament. Finishing the season strong is of great importance.