The Brad Underwood era of Illinois basketball has seen quite the roller coaster of confidence and emotions.
At the beginning, the honeymoon period of Underwood leading the Illini was great. We were coming off a bad fit in John Groce, and the fact that Underwood was getting recruits and the winning soon followed was fun to watch.
That honeymoon era is over, though. Underwood is currently in his ninth season with the program, and it is time to start getting over the hump and getting to the promised land. 20-win campaigns are great, but that is now the floor for the Orange and Blue. It used to be the goal under previous regimes, but the goalposts have moved, and now the goal is a national championship.
To me, there is one glaring issue that I see with the Underwood era of Illinois basketball.
Success against the top teams.
In Underwood’s time at Illinois, we have played quite a few of the top teams in the country. Illinois is 16-20 against top 10 teams, but it is the elite of the elite that always seem to get the better of us.
Against top-five teams, Illinois is just 7-16 during the Underwood era. That is a winning percentage of 30.4%. In the last four seasons, that number has dropped, too.
The Illini have won just four games against top-five teams in the last four seasons. Our record is 4-10 in this stretch, which is a 28.6% winning percentage.
I wanted to see if this was in line with some of the elite programs in the country. To be the best, you have to beat the best. I took three of the top teams in the country in Houston, UConn, and Duke, and looked at their record over the last four seasons against top-five teams.
Houston and UConn have both won 40% of their games against top-five programs. Duke takes the cake, though. The Blue Devils have won 50% of their games against top-five teams in the last four seasons.
Illinois has done a good job winning against top 10 programs, but when you creep into the top five, that is when there is some disconnect. We are a program that is always good enough to be in that conversation of a top 10 program, but we are never good enough to be considered elite.
Is there something to Illinois basketball playing so many ranked programs each season
When going through the numbers, there is a theory that I have formulated. Maybe the schedule that is put together with all of these tough teams isn’t actually helping Illinois.
I know it is good to play against high-level competition, but the physical toll it takes on the team might be wearing us down for when March comes around.
Illinois has played 14 games against top-five programs in the last four seasons. Houston, UConn, and Duke combined to play 16 games against top-five programs.
One thing is for sure: Illinois, for some reason, can’t get into that elite level. I have been waiting for it to happen, but when it comes to the top five, it is a wall we have chipped away at but have yet to break through.