The Illinois defense opened the season with what has been called an uneven debut against UAB in Champaign.
The Blazers put 400+ yards on the Illini with a run-heavy game script and three different running backs.
While the Illinois defensive line didn’t kill UAB with penetration and the secondary didn’t create turnovers, there was one thing seemed pretty clear.
Bret Bielema and Bobby Hauck did not unleash the full ferocity of the 3-3-5 defensive scheme.
Illinois didn’t dial up a ton of exotic blitz packages. They tried to “get home” with base-level sets instead of throwing the kitchen sink at a non-conference game for which they were four-touchdown favorites.
Any panic and consternation are premature at best. While this was far from a perfect frame, it doesn’t necessarily foretell gloom and doom. So let’s take a look at what could be.
Illinois football defense - Worst-case scenario
- The personnel and talent available can’t execute the scheme, and they fall apart against more physical competition.
It’s hard to imagine a defense with Xavier Scott (at whom nobody wants to throw), Matthew Bailey, and Juice Clarke could ever be truly awful.
But this defense requires a defensive line that is able to react with a mix of speed and ferocity. Does Illinois have the athleticism up front to do so?
It’s not a coincidence that linebacker Will Holmes was moved to defensive line. Trust me, there will be more on Will Holmes later.
If Carter Janki and Darrell Prater can’t create a consistent interior push, then skilled quarterbacks will pick Illinois apart.
If players like Joe Barna and Pat Farrell don’t demonstrate upfield playmaking on a regular basis, then Illinois will have to rely too heavily on younger players. Also, put a pin in the comment about younger players.
The linebacker room has changed the calculus. It’s one of the groups with the least depth on the roster. Additionally, tackling has been an Achilles heel of the group for years, in spite of the prior presence of Dylan Rosiek.
Illinois missed 16 tackles against UAB. That is an unsustainable pace for a team with bowl aspirations. If the problem persists, another transfer portal exodus, in conjunction with a massive disappointment for Bielema, could be on the horizon.
Illinois football defense - Best-case scenario
- The young players emerge quickly, and their athletic gifts support the veterans in a confoundingly effective defense.
The Illini have put together two excellent recruiting classes in a row. Those classes include legitimate potential impact pieces on defense. And with the blank slate of a new scheme, perhaps they will adapt quickly and make a significant impact as underclassmen in the Big Ten.
Grant Beerman is the most athletically gifted linebacker to enter the program in years. His blend of length, speed, and instincts is ready for prime time. If he takes better angles and becomes more sure-handed as a tackler, he could be one of the top players on the defense by mid-season.
True freshman Nick Hankins is another physical marvel who brings every single tool in the box as an 18-year-old. He plays with skill and pace, but with intensity and precision. Tywan Cox, Juice Clarke, and Jakwon Morris are all poised for good seasons in a deep secondary group.
(Not to mention the two superstars who decided to forego the NFL Draft.)
Hankins has the potential to be the next Illini first-round defensive back. And starring in his first year on campus would be a giant bonus for a defense still experiencing growing pains.
Parker Crim came to campus with less fanfare, but the speed-power combination and raw tools Terrance Jamison has traditionally done a great job developing.
Wait, Jamo is gone? Okay. Well, Coach Jordan Thomas, you’re up. And you’ve got some intriguing clay to mold into the next great Illinois game-wrecking defensive lineman.
Unless Holmes beats him to it. Holmes is the ultimate wildcard. He is still relatively new to football. He is even newer to being a true defensive lineman. Yet, he looks like he was born to be a physical presence in a Big Ten pass rush.
Holmes has a similar physical stature to Gabe Jacas. Time will tell if he approaches Gabe’s stature in Illini lore.
Illinois football defense - Most likely scenario
I know it’s not the most exciting possibility, but the most likely outcome is an uneven season where the offense carries more water than the defense.
There will be a lot of exciting plays. There may be more turnovers.
There will also be blown coverages and assignments.
The tackling will likely improve, but will it be enough to make a noticeable difference in the bottom line?
The young players will play more. They will take their lumps and be battle-tested. And yes, the precocious talent will shine.
Beerman’s length and athletic gifts will be well utilized in a defense built around reading, responding, and reacting.
Hankins has the tools to thrive on an island.
Ean Rhea, Holmes, Mason Muragin, Crim, Farrell, and Barna will likely flash legitimate pass-rush ability. If it can consistently accompany “getting home” with four rushers, the potentially elite secondary can help create coverage sacks on a regular basis.
Realistically, this team will be in a lot of shootouts. And yes, Katin Houser may be frustrated with needing to put up 42 points some weeks to win.
But the potential to scramble the brains of opposing offensive coordinators and emphasize the athleticism of the newcomers leaves this defense with more upside.
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