Illinois basketball will soon start its run to the national championship, as either Xavier or Texas will be waiting.
The Illini didn’t end the season off on the right note, as Maryland destroyed us in the Big Ten Tournament. Despite the loss, there are some numbers that give me confidence that Illinois can make a run in the NCAA tournament.
Sadly, there are some numbers that I think could be the end of the Illini as well. These numbers have plagued this program all season long, and they could end up getting us in the postseason.
Here are 3 stats that say Illinois basketball could struggle in the NCAA tournament 1st round
1. 31.1% 3-point shooting (Xavier 38.8%, Texas 36.0%)
This is one of the biggest glaring issues for the Illinois basketball program. Three-point shooting has haunted us all season long.
Sure, there have been a couple of handfuls of games in which we have shot well from distance, but the large sample size bears out to a 31.1% three-point shooting mark. That is horrific, and it ranks No. 316 in the country.
While Illinois struggles to hit from three-point range, our two potential opponents excel at this area of the game. Xavier hits three-pointers at a clip of 38.8%, which ranks No. 6 in the nation. Guard Ryan Conwell is their ace, as he attempts 7.25 three-pointers per game and hits them at a clip of 41.8%.
Texas isn’t too far behind Xavier’s mark from long range. They convert their three-pointers at a rate of 36% this season. Tre Johnson and Jordan Pope have combined for 380 three-pointers this season and they hit them at a clip of 39.2% and 36.2%, respectively.
If Illinois doesn’t guard well on the perimeter, and we haven’t as of late, both Xavier and Texas could shoot us out of the gym.
2. 9.2 opponent turnovers per game (Xavier 12.3, Texas 11.3)
Creating extra scoring opportunities is a good way to win games. Without doing that, it makes it tough to take down good teams.
That is why I love what Morez Johnson Jr. does for the Illini. He pulls down offensive rebounds to give the program more chances to score. One area that worries me is Illinois forcing turnovers.
This season, the Illini have only forced opponents to turn the ball over 9.2 times per game. That is literally one of the worst numbers in the country, as Illinois ranks No. 350 out of 364 DI programs.
I am a bit surprised at this number too. Illinois is at its best out in space and running the court. Forcing more turnovers would give us more of those opportunities.
On the other hand, Xavier and Texas both are great at forcing turnovers. That doesn’t bode well for the Illini.
Xavier forces their opponents to average 12.3 turnovers per game. What is impressive is that they have five players who average at least one steal per game too. The Musketeers would be a pesky team to play.
The Longhorns can hold their own in this category too. Texas’ opponents average 11.3 turnovers per game this season. They can force their opponent into tough situations, and I don’t like that for the Illini. We have a problem with turnovers, and both potential opponents force teams into a lot of turnovers. That isn’t a good combination.
3. 74.6 opponent points per game (Xavier 70.9, Texas 72.2)
I am most nervous about Illinois’ lack of defense. We have been pretty terrible defensively this season, and it could come back to bite us in a big game.
Illinois is currently allowing opponents to score 74.6 points per game. That ranks in the bottom half of the country at No. 235. The bad defense has really ramped up lately too.
While the Illini finished the last five games 4-1, these wins didn’t come without giving up a ton of points. Illinois beat Purdue but still allowed 80 points. We took down Iowa but gave up 94 points to the Hawkeyes. In the ugly loss to Maryland, Illinois allowed 88 points and it could have been more.
On the flip side, Xavier has a good defense, as they give up 70.9 points per game. The Musketeers won seven out of their final eight games and they gave up fewer than 70 points in five out of those eight games.
Texas’ defense isn’t as good, but they can still hold their own. The Longhorns had a stretch this season when they played seven ranked opponents in eight games. They only gave up 80 points in three of those games.
If or when Illinois falls in the NCAA tournament, it is likely going to be due to their weak defense. This has been uncharacteristic of Brad Underwood-led programs.