Illinois basketball is looking to at least repeat what we did in the 2024 NCAA tournament.
It is going to be a tough task for the Illini to get back to the Elite 8. We have to not only survive the first round against a No. 11 seed that has won a game, but then we have to likely take on a No. 3 seed in the next round just to get to the Sweet 16.
Thankfully, there are a few numbers that stand out and could be factors in getting the Illini back to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.
Here are three key stats that say Illinois basketball will advance past the NCAA tournament 1st round
1. 83.8 points per game (Xavier 78.0, Texas 78.4)
The name of the game is scoring points. The more you score, the more likely you are going to win the game. It is that simple sometimes.
Illinois has the ability to put up huge numbers quickly. This season alone, we are averaging 83.8 points per game. This includes hitting at least 100 points in four games this season. A lot of Illinois’ scoring ability depends on if we can get going early in the game.
Xavier and Texas don’t have the same firepower as Illinois. The Musketeers average 78.0 points per game while the Longhorns sit at 78.4 points per game. If Illinois can put up the 83.8 points per game average in the first round, then I love our chances.
2. 11.8 offensive rebounds per game (Xavier 6.2, Texas 9.1)
I think one of the best stats Illinois has carried all season is in the rebounding department. More specifically, I love Illinois’ ability to crash the glass on the offensive end of the court.
Illinois currently averages 11.8 offensive rebounds per game. That is good enough to rank No. 13 in the country. This is where the Illini can really set ourselves apart from the pack. Xavier only pulls down 6.2 offensive rebounds per game while Texas is at 9.1 rebounds per game.
Morez Johnson Jr. is the engine on the offensive glass. He leads Illinois with 78 offensive rebounds this season. Tomislav Ivisic is second on the team with 53 offensive rebounds. Johnson has played nearly 300 fewer minutes than Ivisic this season, though. As long as Johnson is himself, then Illinois should be able to dominate the offensive boards.
3. 46.1% opponent 2-point shooting (Xavier 50.5%, Texas 47.5%)
It is obviously important that Illinois doesn’t give up a high shooting percentage from three-point range, but I think our two-point defense could help clinch a spot in the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Illinois only allows opponents to shoot 46.1% from two-point range, which ranks No. 19 in the nation. Texas is pretty close to that at 47.5%, and Xavier struggles with defense inside the three-point, as they allow opponents to shoot 50.5%.
I believe Johnson has a hand in this stat as well. He and Ivisic dominating in the paint make it hard for them to score around the hoop. This helps Illinois’ defense tremendously. The Illini guards can also guard well, which makes it difficult to drive to the bucket.