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3 numbers that could expose Illinois basketball against UConn in the Final Four

Illinois basketball is going to face a tough UConn team on Saturday night in the Final Four, and there are some numbers that kind of scare me in this contest
ByRees Woodcock|
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Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; UConn Huskies guard Solo Ball (1) and Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) fight for the ball in the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; UConn Huskies guard Solo Ball (1) and Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) fight for the ball in the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

This is one of the most exciting times to be an Illinois basketball fan, as we are two wins away from a national championship.

Right now, the only thing standing in our way is the UConn Huskies. The Illini will be battling against a team that has national championship experience on the roster and coaching staff.

There are numbers that I think could help sway the game in favor of Illinois, but there are also numbers that could expose us against UConn. Those are the numbers that terrify me the most.

Here are three numbers that could expose Illinois basketball against UConn in the Final Four

1. Blocks per game

  • UConn 5.2 (#12 in the country)
  • Illinois 4.5 (#36)

Illinois is a good three-point shooting team, but when those shots aren’t dropping, we need to be aggressive in the paint. The scary part is that UConn is good at defending the rim.

The Huskies average 5.2 blocks per game this season. Illinois isn’t bad either, as we average 4.5 blocks per game. The fact that UConn is such a staunch rim defender worries me. Illinois has only played one other team that is good and is nasty in the paint. That was Michigan, which averages 6.1 blocks per game. We lost that game.

2. Steals per defensive play

  • UConn 9.1% (#105)
  • Illinois 4.9% (#365)

Every possession is going to matter like no other game on Saturday night. Each turnover and lost possession is going to seem like the world is ending.

That is why UConn’s ability to steal the ball is something to keep an eye on. The Huskies average a steal every 9.1% of defensive possessions. This comes out to 6.9 steals per game. On the other side, Illinois is literally the worst team in the country in steals. We only average a steal every 4.9% of defensive possessions, and Illinois averages just 3.8 steals per game.

Illinois isn’t going to steal the ball from UConn often, and the Huskies can force turnovers on nearly 10% of defensive possessions. That is a number that could be sneaky on Saturday.

3. Opponent two-point percentage

  • UConn 46% (#13)
  • Illinois 48% (#43)

Some of the numbers I present aren’t going to have a huge gap between UConn and Illinois, but it is the impact the number could have on the Orange and Blue.

UConn is a terrifying defensive team in the paint. I mentioned that already, with their great ability to block shots. They also don’t allow opponents to shoot well from inside the three-point arc, either.

The Huskies are only allowing their opponents to shoot 46% from two-point range. Illinois is right there with them at 48%. But the fact is that if we start getting cold from deep, Illinois might not have an answer on the inside. UConn’s interior defense could be a game-changer.

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