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3 numbers that could expose UConn against Illinois basketball in the Final Four

UConn is going to be a tough challenge, but these are three stats that could help sway the Final Four in favor of the Illinois basketball program
ByRees Woodcock|
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Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) collides with UConn Huskies guard Malachi Smith (0) in the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) collides with UConn Huskies guard Malachi Smith (0) in the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Illinois basketball is taking on one of the toughest teams in the country on Saturday night.

The UConn Huskies have had our number over the years, but this is an Illini team that is different from those in the past. The 2024 squad relied on one player to take over games. This year’s team that lost to UConn was young and new. November was so long ago.

Illinois has a chance to really punch UConn in the face early and often. We have better numbers than the Huskies in numerous areas, but there are three that I think could expose UConn the most.

Here are three numbers that could expose UConn against Illinois basketball in the Final Four

1. Three-pointers attempted per game

  • Illinois 30.7 (#12 in the country)
  • UConn 23.6 (#155)

When it is all said and done, the determination of who advances to the national championship could be which program shoots better from the perimeter.

I think Illinois could really hit UConn hard from the three-point arc. It is simple math. Illinois shoots a higher volume from deep. We attempt 30.7 three-pointers per game and convert at a clip of 34.8%. UConn shoots 23.6 three-pointers per game and averages 34.6%.

Both programs shoot about the same percentage from three-point range. Illinois attempts seven more three-pointers per game. That means we are projected to make more three-pointers than UConn. This could change the game.

2. Free throws percentage

  • Illinois 78.0% (#16)
  • UConn 71.9% (#210)

With both teams playing stout defense, shooting is going to be paramount. Illinois has the ability to convert from the charity stripe, and that is massively important.

This season, the Illini are shooting 78.0% from the free throw line on 20.4 attempts per game. UConn is only shooting 71.9% from the charity stripe on 17.6 attempts. Again, this is simple math. Illinois shoots better and takes more free throws per game. That should mean more points on the board for the Orange and Blue.

3. Rebounds per game

  • Illinois 41.0 (#7)
  • UConn 36.4 (#92)

When it comes down to it, one rebound can change the game drastically. A big rebound could be a two-to-five-point swing.

Illinois is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. We average 41.0 rebounds per game. UConn can hold their own, though, as they pull down 36.4 rebounds per contest. That nearly five-rebound margin is huge. Each rebound is going to be so important.

Expanding on the rebounding, the offensive rebounds will be key, too. Illinois averages 12.0 offensive rebounds per game, while UConn checks in at 10.0 offensive rebounds per game. That is a number to keep an eye on.

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