The opening game for the Illinois basketball team in the NCAA tournament is on Thursday night.
This has been a long season full of ups and downs. The Illini have battled through injuries and chemistry issues, but we came out on the other side as a No. 3 seed.
What a No. 3 seed means is that the No. 14 seed is licking their chops to pull that bracket-busting upset. Illinois can’t let that happen, though. We can’t be the laughingstock of the college basketball world.
To secure the first round win, the Illini need to do a few things. If we can manage to achieve these three goals, then this should be a victory, and we should be moving on to the Round of 32.
Here are three keys for the Illinois basketball team to avoid the NCAA tournament upset against Penn
1. Illinois can’t let Penn get going from 3-point range
Illinois has played plenty of good teams this season, but there is only one program we have gone up against that has a better three-point shooting percentage than Penn. Texas Tech shot 39.3% this season from deep, and we beat them earlier in the season.
Penn can hold their own from three-point range, though. The Quakers shoot 38.7% from the three-point arc, which ranks No. 11 in the country.
They won’t just chuck bad three-pointers up, though. Penn is efficient with their shots, which is even scarier. The Quakers average just 20.9 three-pointers per game, which ranks No. 255 in the country.
Nearly everyone on their team can shoot the ball, too. Penn doesn’t have a ton of shooting weaknesses, and Illinois has a few players who lack on the defensive end of the court.
At the end of the day, the Illini can’t let Penn get going from three-point range. If they start knocking down shots, the music could stop, and the dancing will come to an end for the Orange and Blue.
2. The Illini has to avoid putting Andrej Stojakovic on TJ Power
This section goes hand-in-hand with the first section. The biggest threat Penn has entering the game on Thursday is TJ Power.
Power is a dangerous 6-foot-9 wing who can play at all levels on the court. He is a masterful three-point threat, though.
My biggest fear is that when Illinois plays Andrej Stojakovic, he will end up being on Power on the wing. That would be bad news. Stojakovic is the worst defender the Illini have on the court at all times.
It pains me to watch Stojakovic play defense. He has cement blocks for feet, and it is amazing how slow he is off the dribble when an opponent tries to get past him. This is what will happen against Power. He isn’t fast through screens, either. Power will have a big game with Stojakovic guarding him.
The hope is that Illinois has either David Mirkovic or, more likely, Ben Humrichous on Power all game long. Both players are long and can move decently well. Humrichous is a much-improved defender from last season, and he could be a nightmare for Power.
As long as Stojakovic isn’t guarding Power, I think Illinois will be fine. If Power gets going, this could be a long night.
3. Win the offensive rebounding battle against Penn
Surprisingly, Penn is not a bad rebounding squad. Usually, these types of programs are undersized but way smarter than a team like Illinois. That isn’t the case, though.
The Quakers have a ton of 6-foot-9 guys, and they are solid on the glass. They average 35.6 rebounds per game, which ranks No. 125 in the country. It isn’t the overall rebounds that worry me, though.
Penn hustles to the basketball. They are going after every rebounding opportunity, and this has paid off on the offensive glass in particular.
This season, Penn has averaged 9.6 offensive rebounds per game. That is good enough to rank No. 115 in the nation.
While Illinois averages 12.0 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks No. 7 in the nation, this has been a problem at times this season.
In both of the Wisconsin losses, Illinois had eight and nine offensive rebounds, which were the fewest for the program this season. We also struggled against teams like UTRGV, Ohio State, and Iowa when we had single-digit offensive rebounds.
Illinois has to make it a focus to crash the offensive glass. We can’t let Penn win the offensive rebounding battle, or it could end up being a tough battle down to the end.