If you are a fan of a team that is a low single-digit seed, like the Illinois basketball program, you are always in fear of the dreaded upset.
It happens every year. Some unsuspecting team gets clipped by a program no one saw coming by a player who will soon graduate and become a sales manager at a car dealership. In the 2026 NCAA tournament, the Illini are in one of those seeds that are always on the upset radar.
Illinois had it happen to us in the late 1980s. A No. 3 seed Illinois program went into a game against No. 14 Austin Peay and fell to the Governors, 68-67. Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it.
While that saying is true, and Illinois shouldn’t underestimate their opponent, there are some numbers of late that can give the Illini fans some peace of mind.
Over the last four NCAA tournaments, only one No. 14 seed has upset a No. 3 seed. It was two seasons ago when Jack Gohlke and the Oakland Golden Grizzlies took out No. 3 Kentucky.
That was clearly a one-off, though. Out of the last 16 matchups between No. 3 and No. 14 seeds, that was the only upset.
In 13 out of the 16 matchups, the No. 3 seed has won by double-digit points. This includes the No. 3 seed winning by at least 20 points five times, and two of those were by over 30 points.
The No. 3 seed’s victories over No. 14 seeds have been by an average of 18.4 points. One of those wins was actually by Illinois two seasons ago, when we took out Morehead State by 16 points.
Illinois basketball should follow suit with the other major programs that have played Penn
The numbers above show that an upset of a No. 14 seed over a No. 3 seed is highly unlikely. To add to those numbers, the Quakers haven’t exactly been a good team against non-mid-major teams this season.
Penn has played three non-mid-major programs this season. They went to 15-18 Providence and lost by 25 points. The Quakers lost at Villanova by 27 points. The one interesting result was Penn only losing by one point against Rutgers. That is the same Scarlet Knights program we trounced by 26 points.
It is always nerve-racking heading into a game against a double-digit seed. The numbers above should give Illinois fans a little peace of mind. The Illini should be able to forge ahead and get to, at least, the Round of 32.