The Illinois basketball program just came off one of the greatest runs in team history.
Making it to the Final Four is something Illini fans should cherish because it doesn’t happen often. We were over 20 years removed from the last time we made it this far in the NCAA tournament.
A big part of that run was Keaton Wagler. His freshman season matched the greatness of the 2026-27 squad. Sadly, that big part is now gone, drafted No. 5 overall to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Who is going to replace the great guard, though?
Let’s first start off with numbers. Wagler averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Who steps up and takes over as Illinois’ leading scorer?
Honestly, I think you are looking at two players here. David Mirkovic has a chance to see a bump in numbers. I also believe incoming transfer portal addition Stefan Vaaks could have that type of scoring impact.
My bet is on Mirkovic. I am all-in on him this season. He is going to be looked to more this season with the departures, and with more opportunities comes more points with his 37.5% three-point shooting.
Wagler was third on the team with 5.1 rebounds per game. To replace that, Illinois needs a guard to attack the glass like Wagler was able to do.
Again, I think this is where Vaaks could come into play. He is a bigger guard than Wagler, and I think Brad Underwood is going to use him as such. Vaaks only had 2.5 rebounds as a freshman, but with how Illinois plays, he will be focused on crashing the glass more. Don’t be surprised if he gets to around 5.0 rebounds or more per game.
Where are the assists coming from? Wagler led the Illini with 4.2 assists per game last season.
If you are looking at a pure point guard, you aren’t going to find one on the roster next season. I have already mentioned I am high on this kid coming into the upcoming campaign, so I think this is Mirkovic’s time to shine.
I think Illinois has a baby Nikola Jokic on our hands. Mirkovic has a golden opportunity to put up massive scoring numbers next season, and I think he can be a player that the offense goes through every time down the court.
Mirkovic’s court vision last season was incredibly impressive. Getting the ball to him and letting him see the court, like Jokic, is going to be ideal. He averaged 2.6 assists per game last season, which was third on the team. I expect that number to be north of 4.0 assists per game, and maybe even higher than that.
The last number I am eyeing to see who rises to the occasion is three-point shooting. Wagler led Illinois with 39.7% shooting from deep.
There are a few options here, but I think a strong possibility to lead Illinois in three-point shooting next season is also a freshman. Quentin Coleman.
It is tough to predict what a freshman will do, but he did shoot 50.6% from three-point range as a senior. While I don’t expect him to hit that number, Coleman could easily be around 40% for the Illini.
Keaton Wagler brought more than stats to the Illinois basketball program
The last thing I want to touch on with the Wagler departure isn’t tangible. I think the toughest thing to replace from Wagler is his bucket-getting.
Whenever Illinois needed a bucket, Wagler was our go-to guy. He was someone who could get the ball, and he could create his own shot or hit a three-pointer in the defender’s eye with the clock running down.
Who has ice in their veins this upcoming season?
I look at the Illinois roster that is returning, and honestly, I don’t see one. I think this part that is missing from Wagler has to come from one of the newcomers.
Vaaks is a really good player, but I am not sure how good he is if Illinois gets him the ball and tells him to get a bucket. At the end of the day, I think that ability is going to go to Coleman.
Coleman has shown he can create his own shot. He is quick off the dribble, and he can shoot from all three levels. He will have a great freshman campaign, and Illinois is going to look to him for a lot, much like we did with Wagler.
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