In a recent episode of The Big Ten Huddle, my co-host, Zack Gugenheim, and I gave our floor and ceiling records for every Big Ten football team in 2025.
The discussion on Illinois covered the team’s schedule, their knack for close games, and the uphill battle for playoff contention. Here’s an in-depth look at what fans can expect as the best and worst-case scenarios for Illinois football in 2025.
A Favorable Yet Sneaky Schedule
Illinois faces a schedule that’s kinder than most in the Big Ten but still packed with hurdles. With only one of the Big Ten teams that are in the top three for odds to win the Big Ten on the schedule, Illinois must capitalize on its favorable schedule. Additionally, the Illini get the Buckeyes in Champaign, where Ohio State hasn't played since 2015. Ryan Day has also never faced Illinois as the head coach of Ohio State.
The mix of home and away games adds complexity. Road trips to Duke, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Washington will test Illinois’ resilience, while home games against USC and Ohio State will be battles for Bret Bielema and his team.
There's a possibility of Illinois going under their win total and being 7-5 or even 6-6, though 7-5 is a more likely floor since Bielema always seems to excel in one-score games, going 5-1 last year. A ceiling of 11-1 isn’t out of reach, but 9-3 or 10-2 feels more plausible, given the slate.
Mastering the Art of Close Games
Illinois has thrived in nail-biters, a testament to Bielema’s leadership and quarterback Luke Altmyer’s poise. Last season, they pulled off five one-score victories, but it’s not likely that every single close game is going to go your way. Banking on consistent clutch success is a gamble.
Altmyer’s ability to deliver under pressure will be pivotal, but it doesn't have to be so often. In games against teams like USC and Wisconsin, who went a combined 12-13 last year, the Illini need to get out to a multiple-score lead and keep it. One or two slip-ups in these scenarios could drop them closer to that 7-5 floor. We saw Illinois almost blow games against Purdue and Rutgers last year. Those games cannot happen again.
Playoff Hopes in a Biased Landscape
If Illinois can put away the teams they are supposed to beat, and go 10-2 or 9-3, that will put them in contention, but SEC bias could derail them. A 9-3 Illinois team will not make the College Football Playoff unless something catastrophic happens with the SEC.
Beating a team that is always highly ranked, like Ohio State, might be their golden ticket, yet conference perceptions often overshadow solid Big Ten resumes. It’s a frustrating reality—Illinois could notch nine or ten wins and still watch SEC teams with similar records snag playoff spots.
The Bielema-Altmyer Factor
Bielema’s coaching brilliance and Altmyer’s clutch play are going to be crucial for Illinois. Bielema is an excellent coach who has steered the team through adversity. It would be irresponsible of me to assume that they will win every single close game again. The x-factor this year should be less about winning close games and more about having fewer close games with more double-digit wins.
Final Thoughts
Illinois football sits at a crossroads, 7-5 as the floor, 11-1 as the ceiling, with 9-3 or 10-2 as likely outcomes. The schedule’s challenges, reliance on close-game heroics, and playoff politics will shape their fate. Fans should buckle up for a thrilling, unpredictable ride.