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Weekend chaos gives Illinois basketball an NCAA tournament prediction surprise

We are coming down to the wire, and the Illinois basketball program is looking at an even better seed than expected for the NCAA tournament.
ByRees Woodcock|
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Feb 27, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) embraces Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) after a score during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Feb 27, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) embraces Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) after a score during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

It is the wild-wild west right now when it comes to the NCAA tournament, and the Illinois basketball team is in the middle of the chaos.

The Illini have dropped four out of the last six games, three of which were in overtime. We didn’t look good in the last meeting against Michigan either. I fully expected a No. 3 seed the rest of the way out, but there was a big surprise that dropped into our laps on Monday.

Joe Lunardi of ESPN published an updated NCAA tournament bracket prediction. Instead of Illinois donning a No. 3 seed, he has us moving back up into the final No. 2 seed slot.

How can this happen? I mean, the Illini have lost two in a row and four out of six, but somehow, we just moved up a spot.

Chaos.

This weekend was brutal for the NCAA tournament bracket and teams separating themselves from the pack.

Saturday provided so much damage to teams Illinois is competing with for a No. 2 seed. Virginia and Kansas were both staved off. Iowa State dropped from a No. 2 seed to a No. 3 seed with a home loss against Texas Tech, which Illinois already beat this season.

Gonzaga had a chance to jump up into the No. 2 seed territory, but they lost by double-digits to an unranked Saint Mary’s program.

The icing on the cake for Illinois moving up to the projected No. 2 seed was actually on Sunday. Purdue was beaten down by Ohio State, 82-74. This game wasn’t even that close. That is a bad loss for the Boilermakers and ultimately was the reason they dropped down a seed.

Everything is setting up for Illinois and Purdue to battle for the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament

While it is fun to see where Illinois is predicted to land in the NCAA tournament, there is still plenty of time left for all teams to make their mark in March.

As of right now, Illinois sits as the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The projected No. 5 seed is Purdue. The Illini would get the triple-bye, and the team we may play is the Boilermakers.

If that ends up being the case, I think the winner of that matchup is the No. 2 seed and the loser is the No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament.

There is still plenty at stake the rest of the way out. Illinois needs to finish strong and continue the push for a top-two seed in the NCAA tournament.

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