It is the beginning of July, and that means the Illinois football season is right around the corner.
I can’t believe we are about to start up another year for the Illini. It felt like just yesterday the Orange and Blue were taking down South Carolina from the almighty SEC. In the blink of an eye, we are now less than eight weeks away from the opening kick.
Illinois has expectations to open a season for the first time since 2008. That was the season following the Rose Bowl appearance. Most Illini fans want to forget that season, as we floundered to a 5-7 record.
In 2025, expectations are high once again. Winning 10 games and beating one of the Heisman Trophy hopefuls in a bowl game is a lot to live up to. While the opening game on August 29 against Western Illinois won’t move the needle, there are a couple of early games that will shape the season entirely.
The first of the two games is at Duke. This is game two of the season, as we head to Durham on September 6. The Blue Devils were a top 25 team in the College Football 26 game that was released, so they are likely going to be a ranked team when we play them in September.
Taking down Duke will be paramount. That would help set the tone for the nonconference, and it would likely mean Illinois goes 3-0 heading into the Big Ten slate.
Speaking of the Big Ten schedule, that is when Illinois runs into the second massive early game of the 2025 season.
The first game of the Big Ten schedule is on the road against Indiana. The Hoosiers were the darlings of the college football world last season, as they made it to the College Football Playoff.
Much like Duke, Indiana is projected to be ranked once again, and they are a top 20 team in the new College Football 26 game.
So, for those counting at home, that is two top 25 programs in the first four games of the season. Those games can either put us behind the eight ball moving forward, or they could launch the Illini high into the top 25.
Different scenarios for the first four games of the Illinois football 2025 season
Let’s lay out what could possibly happen in the first four games of the season and where that would put Illinois nationally.
The Illini will start the 2025 season ranked in the top 25. I assume we will be between No. 20 and No. 25. Like I said earlier, a win over Western Illinois isn’t going to move the needle.
Let’s do worst case scenario first. Illinois takes down Western Illinois and Western Michigan. Both the trip to Duke and Indiana are too much to handle, and the Illini start the season 2-2 with two top 25 losses.
That would put Illinois in a really tough position. We would have to run the table to make the College Football Playoff. Running the table would get us in, as that means we beat a top-five Ohio State program. But achieving that would be highly unlikely, as we couldn’t beat Duke and Indiana.
Illinois would have to do some serious work in the Big Ten to, likely, become bowl-eligible in 2025 with two earlier losses.
The best case scenario would be exciting for the Illinois fanbase, though. Illinois takes out both top 25 programs in Duke and Indiana on the road. We start the season 4-0 overall.
These two victories would take Illinois from a team that is just inside the top 25 to a program that is likely inside the top 15 and probably flirting with the top 10.
Illinois taking down two top 25 programs would also help build moment for a tough start to the Big Ten schedule. We already beat a ranked Indiana program, but the Illini then have USC, Ohio State, and at Washington in three out of the next four contests. That momentum would be needed.
It is going to be a wild 2025 campaign, and I believe two huge games to begin the season will shape the rest of what we see this year.