With losses to Indiana and Ohio State, the top two teams in the country, Illinois still had a case for the College Football Playoff. Last week’s loss to Washington, 42-25, out in Seattle dashed those hopes, however. Now, the Fighting Illini need to bounce back and end this two-game losing skid and preserve the strong season.
Rutgers, on the other side, is scratching and clawing to bowl eligibility for the third-straight season under Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights are sitting at 4-4, but with Illinois, Maryland, Ohio State, and Penn State still looming on the schedule, this matchup is massive for their path to six wins.
Illinois is nearly a two-touchdown favorite at home in a game that Vegas expects to be a shootout, so let’s jump into the odds.
Rutgers vs. Illinois odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Rutgers +370
- Illinois -481
Spread
- Rutgers +13.5 (-115)
- Illinois -3.5 (-104)
Total
- 62.5 (over -112/under -108)
Betting odds are subject to change
Rutgers vs. Illinois prediction
Luke Altmyer should have a field day against the Rutgers defense, a unit that ranks 132nd in EPA/pass, and crucially, 123rd in EPA/rush, so the Illini may be able to establish a ground game in this one. Altmyer is one of the best decision-making QBs in the country, and will hold serve in a back-and-forth with Athan Kaliakmanis, his big-armed counterpart. Still, Illinois’s defense can’t be trusted to get stops consistently.
For all of Rutgers’ struggles on the side of the ball, Illinois ranks 126th in defensive NET EPA/drive and 125th in passing success rate. While Kaliakmanis isn’t quite as efficient as Altmyer, Rutgers has an effective run game, ranking 20th in EPA/rush with a 9 percent explosive rush rate.
Running back Antwan Raymond is averaging nearly five yards per carry with 731 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He can keep Rutgers on schedule and force this one up close to the total. Yet, rather than playing the total, my best bet is to take Rutgers +13.5.
Final score prediction: Illinois 35 Rutgers 28
Follow all Josh Yourish’s betting picks HERE