Illinois basketball NCAA tournament – Most likely seed
Well, now that we have the best- and worst-case scenarios laid out, I feel more optimistic than ever before. The bottom isn’t too low, and the ceiling is pretty high.
Even though I want the best-case scenario to happen, I am also trying to be realistic. It is going to be a tough road to the Big Ten Tournament crown. So, let’s take a look at what is most likely going to happen.
Illinois’ first matchup will be in the second round against either No. 10 Ohio State or No. 15 Iowa. Ohio State is probably going to win that game, so the Illini likely have the Buckeyes on Thursday.
Ohio State plays Illinois tough, but we haven’t lost to the Buckeyes in two seasons. The last time Ohio State clipped us was in 2023. I think Illinois wins the fourth game in a row, but this contest is not a blowout by any means.
Here is what I truly believe. If Illinois can get past No. 2 Maryland in the third round, we are going to get to the Big Ten Tournament title game. Sadly, the Terrapins just have Illinois’ number.
Maryland beat the Illini by double-digit points in the lone game this season. Even though we didn’t have Tomislav Ivisic, the Terrapins just looked like a team that could compete for a national championship. They have the team that can make a big-time run in the NCAA tournament.
The Terrapins have Brad Underwood’s number too. They have won four out of the last five matchups and seven out of the last nine against Illinois. For some reason, the Illini can’t figure Maryland out. And now we will likely play them when they are at their best.
I could see Illinois fighting and competing in this game, but Maryland might be too much. The Terrapins clip us and send us home for the weekend waiting for Selection Sunday.
To me, that is the most likely scenario. Again, I think Illinois can win the Big Ten Tournament, but I also want to be realistic. So, if Illinois wins in the second round but falls in the third round, where do we end up being seeded?
That doesn’t really do a lot for the Illini. Lunardi has us as the No. 6 seed right now. I could actually see Illinois moving up to the No. 5 seed depending on how other teams play in their conference tournaments. But Illinois should finish somewhere around No. 15 in the NET Rankings, which could very possibly get us a No. 5 seed. That No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup is always a nervous one. At the end of the day, I think the most likely scenario has Illinois landing at the No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Let the madness begin.