With the NCAA tournament just about a week and a half away, it is time to project where the Illinois basketball team might end up getting seeded.
At one point just a couple of weeks ago, I thought the Illini had a chance to work our way out of the NCAA tournament altogether. We hit a rough patch of mass proportions that saw our record plummet to 17-11 overall and 9-8 in the Big Ten.
A part of this winning drought was a stretch where Illinois went 5-8, which included four losses by double-digit points and three of those losses were by at least 20 points. It was an ugly scene.
Thankfully, the Illini righted the ship. We got back on course and finished the regular season with three straight wins, two over ranked opponents.
The Big Ten Tournament starts this week, and the Illini are seeded No. 7. We get the single-bye, but I want to look at how high Illinois can climb in the seeding or how low we can drop based on our Big Ten Tournament results.
Here is the projected best, worst, and most likely Illinois basketball NCAA tournament seed
Illinois basketball NCAA tournament – Worst seed
Most of the games that actually matter for the NCAA tournament seeding have been completed, and Joe Lunardi of ESPN has released his projected bracket as of Sunday night.
Illinois is currently in the No. 6 spot taking on the winner of the No. 11 play-in game between San Diego State and Xavier. Honestly, that game would scare me to death.
But, as we sit here today, a No. 6 seed is what we are looking at, but there are more games to be played. Let’s take a look at the worst case scenario and where Illinois would be seeded if that happened.
On Wednesday, No. 10 Ohio State takes on No. 15 Iowa. The Buckeyes throttled Iowa in the regular season, 82-65. I could see that same fate happening again, as Ohio State is a solid program.
Ohio State only played Illinois once this season, and it was in Champaign. The Buckeyes gave us a scare, as they were up by six points at halftime and by double-digit points in the second half. Thankfully, Illinois came back and won, but Ohio State had us on the ropes.
That could easily happen again. Teams that have had success against Brad Underwood usually continue to at least compete with us. In the worst-case scenario, the Buckeyes come out on Thursday still hot from the day before. They take Illinois down in the second round.
Honestly, I don’t see the Illini dropping too much if that happens. We are currently No. 15 in the NET Rankings, and all of the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds in ESPN’s projection, excluding Gonzaga, are sub-30 in the NET Rankings.
Even if Illinois goes into the Big Ten Tournament and lays an egg in the second round, our first game, I still think the worst seed we earn in the NCAA tournament is the No. 7 seed.