Best, worst, and most likely NCAA tournament seeds for the Illinois basketball team
The Illinois basketball team had a golden opportunity on Tuesday night to rise sharply up the projected NCAA tournament seeding.
With a win over Purdue, the Illini would have notched a victory over a top-five team in the NET Rankings, and we would have been on a path to an even better seed in the NCAA tournament.
Illinois didn’t manage to hold on, though. Purdue came storming back and took the game in Champaign, 77-71. This was a painful loss because of the implications it had on the Big Ten regular season crown and the potential for a better spot in the Big Dance.
I am now trying to figure out the floor and ceiling for Illinois the rest of the way out.
Best, worst, and most likely NCAA tournament seeds for the Illinois basketball team
Worst seed
Let’s take a look at the worst possible seed first. As of right now, I believe Illinois is probably still comfortably in as the No. 4 seed. That is where the selection committee had us in mid-February, and there is no reason to think otherwise.
Illinois has a NET Ranking of No. 15 in the country, and our 5-6 record against Quad 1 teams keeps us in that spot for now. A bad stretch of games would change everything, though.
On Sunday, the Illini round out the 2023-24 season on the road against Iowa. This is a Quad 1 game since it is a top-75 team on the road. If Illinois drops this game, that gives us a 5-7 Quad 1 record and another tally in the loss column.
Illinois then enters the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 2 seed. Minnesota and Michigan State are vying for the No. 7 seed, and Penn State and Ohio State are currently fighting for the No. 10 seed. A loss to Michigan State gives Illinois another Quad 1 loss, but if we fall to any of the other three teams, that would be even worse.
So, let’s say the Illini drop the game against Iowa and then fall in the Big Ten Tournament in the first game next Friday. Where does that put us?
I realistically see Illinois falling a good amount. If this horrible scenario happens, it wouldn’t shock me to see the Illini get the No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. Falling further than that probably won’t happen based on a solid overall record and a decent record against Quad 1 teams. I believe the No. 6 seed is the lowest Illinois could probably drop.