Yes, the headline is correct, the Illinois football program is still in the running to make the Big Ten Championship game.
Just a couple of weeks ago, this would have been an incredibly crazy thing to say. Illinois was trying to fight for a bowl game, let alone playing for a Big Ten title. After a crazy Saturday, the picture for the Illini is becoming clearer.
Before the weekend, I mapped out what needed to happen for Illinois to make the Big Ten Championship game. We had to win out, and we started on the right foot by beating Nebraska on Friday night.
UCLA and Wisconsin were two teams that I had winning this week. Those two things happened. I also had Minnesota losing to the Bruins, and I had Oregon needing to beat Ohio State. That came true, too.
Illinois winning out removes Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern from getting to the title game, so they aren’t included in this projection. Also, Illinois has the tiebreaker over Oregon, so winning out eliminates the Ducks. That is why they are not a part of this projection.
With three weeks left of the season, here is what needs to happen for the Illinois football program.
Big Ten standings after week 10
1.     UCLA (6-0) – (won at Minnesota)
2.     Indiana (5-1) – (Bye)
3.     Ohio State (4-2) – (lost vs. Oregon)
4.     USC (4-2) – (Bye)
5.     Illinois (4-2) – (won vs. Nebraska)
6.     Wisconsin (4-2) – (won vs. Rutgers)
Next week, Illinois has to beat UCLA. We then need more help. I have Ohio State beating Northwestern and Wisconsin winning at Maryland. The one game that has to go right for Illinois is USC vs. Indiana. The Trojans travel to Bloomington. USC has to win this game.
Illinois loses tiebreakers to Indiana because of the Big Ten record against the same opponents. At the end of the day, the Purdue loss by the Illini hurts us badly.
Projected Big Ten standings after week 11
1.     UCLA (6-1) – (loss vs. Illinois)
2.     Ohio State (5-2) – (win vs. Northwestern)
3.     USC (5-2) – (win at Indiana)
4.     Indiana (5-2) – (loss vs. USC)
5.     Illinois (5-2) – (win at UCLA)
6.     Wisconsin (5-2) – (win at Maryland)
The following week, the Illini need some help again. We need to beat Iowa. I have UCLA, USC, and Wisconsin beating their respective opponents.
Illinois’ big games this week are both Indiana and Ohio State. We need the Hoosiers and Buckeyes to go on the road and lose. Indiana goes to Washington and Ohio State travels to Nebraska. If those games go in favor of the Illini, here is where we would fall in the Big Ten standings.
Projected Big Ten standings after week 12
1.     UCLA (7-1) – (win at Michigan)
2.     USC (6-2) – (win vs. Maryland)
3.     Illinois (6-2) – (win vs. Iowa)
4.     Wisconsin (6-2) – (win at Purdue)
5.     Ohio State (5-3) – (loss at Nebraska)
6.     Indiana (5-3) – (loss at Washington)
The final week of the season could determine everything for Illinois. We need to win at Northwestern. That is the first step.
Indiana and Ohio State are now out of the picture. Those aren’t important games. Illinois does need two results to clear the way. We need UCLA to beat USC. That clears the Trojans out of the picture. Minnesota then needs to beat Wisconsin.
Projected Big Ten standings after week 13
1.     UCLA (8-1) – (win vs. USC)
2.     Illinois (7-2) – (win at Northwestern)
3.     USC (6-3) – (loss vs. UCLA)
4.     Wisconsin (6-3) – (loss vs. Minnesota)
5.     Ohio State (6-3) – (win vs. Michigan)
6.     Indiana (6-3) – (win vs. Purdue)
This is the path for Illinois to get to the Big Ten Championship game. It is going to be tough, and we need some help, but it isn’t a crazy thing to say the Illini have a chance.
Illinois has to take care of business, and then we let the chips fall where they may. Let’s see how the rest of the season plays out.
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