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One big stat that will be key for Illinois basketball success in the NCAA tournament

Illinois basketball is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to protecting the basketball, and that trait will come in handy in the first round of the NCAA Tournament
Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Shauna Green calls out to her team Friday, March 6, 2026, during a Big Ten women's basketball tournament game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Shauna Green calls out to her team Friday, March 6, 2026, during a Big Ten women's basketball tournament game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The women's Illinois basketball team has reached their third NCAA tournament in the last four years, and is set to face the Colorado Buffaloes in the first round out of Nashville, Tennessee.

The Illini are walking into this matchup as winners of two of their last three games, including an impressive 71-69 victory against the Michigan State Spartans in the Big Ten Tournament. Shauna Green's bunch has been a solid unit this year, especially with being the youngest team in the Big Ten.

But this Saturday, the blue and orange will be dipping their toe into the Big 12 waters as they look to take on the 22-11 Buffaloes. The Buffs are certainly not a team to overlook this postseason, especially after finishing the year winning seven of their last ten games.

This game is poised to be a back-and-forth bout, with Illinois edging out Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite heading into the game. It will be a battle of generations, with a young Illinois squad facing off against a much more experienced Colorado unit.

It should be a fun one in the University of Illinois' return to the Music City after the football team's bowl win a number of months ago. But when it comes to what separates these two programs, it may simply come down to who's better at taking care of the basketball

The turnover battle will play a big role in Saturday night's main event

Illinois is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to taking care of the basketball, ranking No. 14 in the entire country with 12.4 turnovers per game. They know how to methodically go through their offense, while still being cognizant about not making too many mistakes.

The Buffs, on the other hand, have not been as fortunate in that regard. They have been a little more loose with the basketball this season, giving up an average of 16.5 turnovers per game that ranks them No. 202 in the country. The worst part about it for them is that their forwards, Jade Masogayo and Anaëlle Dutat, turn the ball over the most with 2.5 and 2.2 turnovers per game, respectively.

Colorado's offense primarily runs through their guards, but their forwards can certainly be an Achilles heel in this opening round matchup, especially against a premier Illinois frontcourt in Berry Wallace and Cearah Parchment.

If Illinois wants to take this one and move on to the Round of 32, they will need to put Masogayo and Dutat in uncomfortable situations. Wallace and Parchment will need to force them to make tough decisions on the fly, and then capitalize on them on the other end of the floor. If they can accomplish that, then the sky's the limit for this program.