The 2024-25 season ended in great disappointment, as the Illinois basketball team fell short against Kentucky in the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Honestly, it wasn’t expected that the Illini would make it too far in the postseason. We saw what the team was midway through the campaign, and the issues on the team were glaring.
Despite having two first round NBA Draft picks, Illinois struggled in key areas. The biggest of those areas was three-point shooting.
Illinois shot 31.3% from three-point range last season. This was bad enough to rank No. 305 out of 364 programs.
There were plenty of bad shooting games that contributed to that awful three-point shooting season. Illinois has more sub-20% three-point shooting games (3) than we had 50% three-point shooting games (2).
A shocking number is how consistently bad Illinois was from beyond the three-point arc. Illinois played 35 games in 2024-25, and in those 35 contests, we shot below 30% from three-point range in 16 games. Illinois was below 35% from three-point range in 24 out of the 35 games, too.
You watched a historically bad three-point shooting team last season. Don’t worry, I am here to tell you, you won’t see that in 2025-26.
Welcome to a new generation of Illinois basketball three-point shooting
Illinois started last season off shooting 38.1% and 39.5% from three-point range. Those two great shooting performances were a mirage. The team plummeted after about the first month and never looked back, or forward for that matter.
The new rendition of the Illini, the 2025-26 squad, shot 45.9% from three-point range on Monday night. This was a great start to the season and would have been the fifth-best shooting night last season. This isn’t a mirage, though. While Illinois won’t keep shooting above 40%, this program isn’t going to bottom out.
Out of the Illinois players who attempted a three-pointer last season, we managed to purge six out of the seven worst three-point shooting percentages. Keaton Kutcher, Carey Booth, and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn all shot below 26% from three-point range. Kasparas Jakucionis, Will Riley, and Tre White all shot below 33% from three-point range. All six players are now gone.
Illinois returns our top three three-point shooters, Tomislav Ivisic (35.7%), Jake Davis (34.4%), and Ben Humrichous (34.3%).
And then there is the natural progression under Brad Underwood from year one to year two. A player like Terrence Shannon Jr. went from shooting 32.1% from three-point range in his first year at Illinois to shooting 36.2% in year two.
I fully expect an uptick from the returning players, too. Ivisic should remain steady, Davis, I would like to see around 35%, and I think Humrichous can get to 36% or better. I haven’t even mentioned Kylan Boswell, who shot 24.5% from three-point range last season. Look for a massive improvement from deep in his second year. I expect him to shoot around 33% or better for the Illini.
Underwood replaced the departing Illinois players with players who can shoot the ball, too. David Mirkovic proved he was a capable shooter overseas, and he was 50% from three-point range against Jackson State and was 2-of-6 in the exhibition game.
Keaton Wagler shot 44.6% from three-point range his senior year in high school. We will eventually see Andrej Stojakovic on the court, and the last name says it all. Even Mihailo Petrovic shot 33.3% from three-point range overseas.
The worst shooter Illinois had against Jackson State was Zvonimir Ivisic, the newcomer 7-foot-2 big man and brother of Tomislav. He shot 0-of-3 from three-point range. Don’t expect that to last, as Ivisic shot 37.5% at Kentucky in year one, and he shot 37.6% from three-point range with Arkansas last season.
While it might make some Illinois fans nervous that Illinois is going to come back down to Earth hard when it comes to three-point shooting, don’t count on it. This isn’t a mirage. Illinois is a good three-point shooting team in 2025-26.
I expect Illinois to be somewhere around 35% from beyond the three-point arc this season. That would land us around the top 100 nationally. If we can hold that mark, the Illini will have a legitimate chance to not only be a high seed in the NCAA tournament, but look for this program to make a run come March. Don’t look now, but the national championship is in Indianapolis.