Some Illinois football fans are understandably upset right now after the Duke contest.
The Illini had the game against the Blue Devils, but we let it slip through our fingers. I believe Illinois is better than that Duke program. Bret Bielema didn’t bring home the victory, though.
I have seen a lot of rumblings about fans wanting Bielema gone and a fresh start in Champaign. That is a step too far. Just simply looking at what Illinois is today compared to what it was before Bielema, letting go of our head coach wouldn’t make any sense.
With that being said, news figures were released on Wednesday that strengthen the fact that Illinois needs to hold on to Bielema for dear life.
The Athletic crunched Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) revenue numbers for all 68 power four conference programs. They interviewed numerous sources with knowledge of NIL, and they came up with an estimated budget for each of the programs.
The top 15 are obvious programs. You are looking at your recent national champs: Ohio State, Indiana, and Michigan. Miami is in there, and they were close to winning it all last season.
Illinois isn’t sniffing the top 15. We aren’t even close to the top 25. The Athletic has the Illini ranked No. 48 in the country, with a projected NIL budget of $19-23 million.
When Bielema took over at Illinois, the program had a combined 17 wins in the prior five seasons. He took over a dumpster fire.
In five full seasons, Bielema has had 37 wins. Illinois has been ranked in the College Football Playoff three times, and we have made three bowl games, two of which were wins over SEC programs.
The NIL projection by The Athletic makes what Bielema has done at Illinois even more special. There are only 20 power four programs with smaller NIL budgets than the Illini. Yet, success still arrives at our doorstep.
Over the past two seasons, Bielema has seen great success against programs with bigger projected NIL budgets. In fact, Illinois is 11-6 against those programs. This includes the two bowl wins over Tennessee and South Carolina, which have the No. 9 and No. 16 NIL budgets, respectively.
Think about that for a second. Tennessee has a projected NIL budget of $41-43 million. That is double that of Illinois’ budget. South Carolina is right up there with a budget of $32-35 million, too. Yet, Illinois is still beating them in bowl games.
If you want to take this a step further, let’s take a look at the top 25 NIL budgets. Theoretically, these should be the top 25 teams in college football.
Over the last two seasons, Bielema has done well against the top 25 NIL budgets. Illinois has played 10 top-25 NIL teams, and we are 5-5 against those opponents.
Bret Bielema’s success at Illinois hasn’t come without some NIL disappointments
Illinois has done wonders on the football field, and the new NIL projection for each program makes the program’s resurgence even more astonishing.
Bielema doesn’t go unscathed in this NIL era, though. While he has had many triumphs and Illinois would be smart to hold tight and not let go, there have been some hiccups along the way.
Let’s take about the 20 teams that have lesser money to spend than Illinois on NIL.
In the past two seasons, Illinois has a record of 4-1 against programs with worse projected NIL budgets. The four wins were against Duke, Purdue twice, and Kansas.
Minnesota was the only loss during the 2024 and 2025 campaigns that had a smaller budget. And honestly, Illinois’ budget is $19-23 million, and Minnesota’s budget is $18-22 million. I am not sure how much of a difference that makes.
Illinois also just lost to Duke this season. The Blue Devils have the second-lowest projected NIL budget, sitting at $12-15 million. They also just lost Darian Mensah, who could end up being the Heisman Trophy winner for Miami this season.
If you are talking in terms of college basketball and the NCAA tournament, the loss to Duke would be considered a bad loss for the Orange and Blue.
In the grand scheme of things, Illinois has had a few hiccups in the Bielema era. At the end of the day, those hiccups are far overshadowed by the great success the program has had with the pocket change compared to our opponents.
Bielema hasn’t just been a great coach for the Illini, but he has been one of the best in program history. Josh Whitman and Illinois fans need to hold onto Bielema for as long as we can. With the projected budget we have and the history of the program, he is clearly working miracles.
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