New NCAA tournament prediction has Illinois basketball in Group of Death

Illinois basketball is chugging along right now, forging their way through the regular season.

The goal of the regular season and the Big Ten Tournament is to jockey for position for the crown jewel, the NCAA tournament. The Illini are doing a great job of that, sitting at 16-3 overall and currently on an eight-game winning streak.

This winning streak has elevated the program slightly. We are now No. 11 in the country in the AP Top 25, but more importantly, the NET Rankings have Illinois No. 9 in the country. This has put us in serious consideration for a top-three seed in the NCAA tournament. In fact, one NCAA tournament predictor has Illinois exactly in that spot.

Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports put out a bracket forecast on Friday. He has Illinois slotted into the No. 3 seed. But what terrifies me the most about this prediction is the insane quadrant of the bracket Illinois would have to go through just to get to the Final Four.

From the jump, this prediction would be terrifying. Illinois is projected to take on No. 14 seed North Dakota State. The Bison have won seven straight and sit at 17-5 overall. That is always a game you have to worry about.

If Illinois were lucky enough to avoid that No. 14 over No. 3 upset that seems to happen every year, the path only gets tougher. Next up would potentially be No. 6 Louisville. They are 13-5 overall and can score at a high clip, as they average 87.9 points per game, which ranks No. 15 in the country. That game would be about who gets hot at the right time.

The Sweet 16 then would be waiting with No. 2 seed Michigan, most likely the competition. I am not sure how they are a No. 2 seed, considering the Wolverines are 18-1 overall and the No. 1 team in the NET Rankings. But this is a major reason why this would be the Group of Death. Having a clear No. 1 seed as the No. 2 seed, and that is the game to advance to the Elite 8, would be tough.

And then if the Illini make it through No. 6 Louisville and No. 2 Michigan, we get the rematch of all rematches. Illinois takes on No. 1 UConn to go to the Final Four. We all know what happened the last time, and the Illini dropped a game to the Huskies back in November.

So, to recap, this NCAA tournament prediction has Illinois opening against one of the best mid-major programs. And then the rest of the path to the Final Four includes all the top 15 teams in the NET rankings. Yes, Louisville is No. 15 in the NET Rankings and is 5-5 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. What a crazy tough quadrant.

The upcoming schedule could move Illinois basketball drastically in NCAA tournament predictions

It is fun to see where Illinois may end up in the NCAA tournament, but let’s be honest, there is plenty of season left.

Illinois has a tough schedule to finish out the 2025-26 campaign, and it all starts on Saturday. Out of the final 12 games of the season, the Illini will play four top 10 programs. Three of those games are on the road.

Overall, Illinois will have six Quad 1 games to finish out the year, too. All of that means a huge boost if the ball falls our way. A No. 1 seed is by no means out of the realm of possibility.