Writing Illini
Fansided

NCAA tournament projection has Illinois tumbling despite being idle

The madness of March has begun, and the Illinois basketball team already took a hit in the NCAA tournament projections
ByRees Woodcock|
Share on FacebookShare on XShare on Reddit
Dec 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the second hal against the Nebraska Cornhuskersf at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Dec 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the second hal against the Nebraska Cornhuskersf at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

We are just dipping our toes into the postseason waters, and Illinois basketball is already moving in the NCAA tournament projections.

The Illini haven’t even played a game, and somehow we are dropping down in the seedings. Coming into Thursday, Illinois was projected as a No. 2 seed in the ESPN bracket prediction. This is where I figured we would stay unless something bad happened in the Big Ten Tournament.

I was clearly wrong, though. Joe Lunardi released updated seedings for the Big Dance on Thursday night, and he has Illinois dropping down one spot, to the top No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Why did this happen?

Lunardi has Iowa State moving up into the No. 2 seed line. They beat down Texas Tech on Thursday by 22 points. But here is the thing that isn’t taken into consideration. The Red Raiders haven’t had their best player since February 14.

JT Toppin is out for the season with an injury, and since he went down, Texas Tech is 3-4. They aren’t the same team, but they are looked at as an elite team still.

This isn’t the last you hear from Illinois basketball when it comes to NCAA tournament seeding

It is never fun to see the Illini drop down a seed without even playing a game. Thankfully, Illinois is about to start their run in the Big Ten Tournament.

The first game is against Wisconsin, which is No. 25 in the NET Rankings. That would give Illinois another Quad 1 win, if we come out on top.

While all of this is speculation, the Illini have a chance to take care of business on Friday. This is a run that we could go on and not only jump back into the No. 2 seed, but if we get hot and win the Big Ten Tournament, I am not counting out a No. 1 seed. Let the madness begin.

Home/Illinois Basketball