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NCAA tournament prediction update has Illinois basketball holding on for dear life

Illinois basketball isn't helping ourselves with recent losses, but we are still hanging on to a solid NCAA tournament seed
ByRees Woodcock|
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Feb 15, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Zvonimir Ivisic (44) smiles as teammates play on the court during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Feb 15, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Zvonimir Ivisic (44) smiles as teammates play on the court during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The month of February has been a wild ride for the Illinois basketball program.

Entering February, the Illini were on a roll. We had won 10 straight games, and that continued in the first few days of the new month, as we extended that winning streak to 12 games at one time.

February 7 happened, and things started to go off the rails. Back-to-back overtime losses hurt, and it nearly knocked Illinois out of the possibility for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Two wins over mediocre programs got us back on track.

The loss to UCLA a week ago was an eye-opener. This was a tough defeat, but the game against No. 3 Michigan was still on the horizon. This was the game that could turn things around and launch us up the national perception and potentially get us to the No. 1 seed.

That didn’t happen, though. Illinois fell to the Wolverines on Friday night, giving us our fourth loss in the last six games. This wasn’t just a regular loss, either. Illinois was out of the game for much of the contest, leading to a 14-point defeat.

Despite the defeat, and the recent losing ways, the NCAA tournament projection still has Illinois in a favorable light. Joe Lunardi released his updated thoughts on social media, and he has the Illini still a No. 2 seed for the postseason. We did drop down to the last No. 2 seed, though.

It is crazy to think that Illinois can drop four out of six and still not drop in projected seeding for the NCAA tournament. My guess is that someone like Houston or Kansas would probably jump Illinois, and we would be a No. 3 seed if the tournament started today.

With that being said, it is all hypothetical at this point. Illinois is projected to be in the same bracket as No. 1 Duke, No. 3 Houston, and No. 4 Texas Tech. We have already beaten the Red Raiders this season, but being in the same region as Duke and Houston is terrifying. Both teams have given Illinois trouble in the Brad Underwood era.

Illinois basketball has to finish strong to hold the solid NCAA tournament seeding

It is comforting to see that Illinois could still be a No. 2 seed after a rough patch in the season. Playing good teams and winning some big games early on has gone a long way in the current standing of the program.

That doesn’t mean we still can’t slip, though. The Illini need to finish the regular season on a high note and do some damage in the Big Ten Tournament.

Illinois still has Oregon coming to Champaign on Tuesday, and then we head to Maryland to take on the Terrapins to finish out the season. Both of these games need to be won. That puts Illinois at 24-7 overall and 15-5 in the Big Ten.

I think we need to do a solid number in the Big Ten Tournament, too. As a top-four seed, Illinois will have a triple-bye. The first game will likely be against the No. 5 seed, which will be Purdue. That needs to be a win for Illinois to lock in a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.

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