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NCAA tournament prediction gives Illinois basketball a raw deal

With the NCAA tournament right around the corner, Illinois basketball is trying to close the season out strong to get a good seed.
ByRees Woodcock|
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Feb 7, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood protests a call during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images
Feb 7, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood protests a call during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

The Illinois basketball team is trying to finish the 2025-26 season on a high note.

Over the last couple of weeks, the Illini have been without a key starter in Kylan Boswell. We have still managed to fight through, even though we have dropped the last two games in overtime.

Sitting at 20-5 overall and 11-3 in the Big Ten, the final six games of the season are about jockeying for position when it comes to the NCAA tournament. After the slate of games on Saturday, Joe Lunardi updated his NCAA tournament prediction, and he has Illinois in a gauntlet of a region.

Illinois is slotted in the East Region as a No. 2 seed. The teams we would have to, potentially, go through to get to the Final Four would include No. 1 Duke, No. 3 Kansas, and No. 4 Alabama.

The Illini have already lost to the Crimson Tide this season, and Duke and Kansas can be argued as two of the best teams in the country when everyone is on the floor.

That is a wild region, especially when you look at the other three regions. The West is projected as No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Purdue, No. 3 Gonzaga, and No. 4 Michigan State. That would be an amazing region to get into.

Illinois basketball could face a ton of blue bloods in the NCAA tournament

If Illinois lands in the East Region and plays the teams that Lunardi predicts, that would be such a tough road to the Final Four. Moreover, Lunardi’s bracket prediction heading into the weekend also had us taking on some blue bloods who are ranked higher than the No. 4 seed.

In the pre-weekend prediction, Lunardi still had Illinois as a No. 2 seed. If we get past No. 15 Navy, then the Illini would likely play No. 7 Kentucky. That is a tough second round game considering the Wildcats are filled with high-level talent.

The next game in the Sweet 16 would then either likely feature No. 3 Kansas or the team they would play in the second round, No. 6 North Carolina.

The East Region is stacked in this prediction. It would have No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Illinois, No. 3 Kansas, No. 4 Vanderbilt (replaced by Alabama), No. 5 St. John’s, No. 6 North Carolina, No. 7 Kentucky, No. 8 Auburn, and No. 9 Indiana. What a crazy bracket.

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