The Illinois basketball team is one of the best programs in the country, and currently holds the sixth-best odds to win it all at +1800.
They are a dynamic group of individuals, led by standout freshman Keaton Wagler, who are currently ranked No. 1 in the country via KenPom when it comes to offensive efficiency. The Illini are poised to make a deep run this postseason as a projected No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
But with Selection Sunday being only five days away, the question on everyone's mind is: "Where will Illinois end up?" Which one of the four brackets will the Illini be placed in, and what will be the path that they will have to take to get to the finish line? That is the question that NCAA March Madness analyst Andy Katz tried to answer in his most recent bracket prediction.
🚨 NEW BRACKET PREDICTION 🚨
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 10, 2026
With Selection Sunday in sight, there's a new 1-seed in @TheAndyKatz's latest bracket prediction 👀 pic.twitter.com/R2r24QkFUn
If Katz's prediction does come to fruition, the Illini will be taking a long bus ride to St. Louis to take on No. 15 Portland State in the first round of the NCAA tournament. After that, if Illinois makes it to the Round of 32, they will face off against either the No. 7 Miami Hurricanes or the No. 10 Saint Louis Billikens.
It would be a great spot for Illinois to open up their tournament, as St. Louis is only a short jaunt away from Champaign, Illinois. But when it comes to their first two potential matchups in Katz's prediction, would it be a good path for them?
Could Portland State keep it close to Illinois in the opening round?
As of March 2025, No. 15 seeds have only defeated No. 2 seeds a total of 11 times in the history of the NCAA tournament. It has been a one-sided affair for the higher-ranked teams in the country, and it's highly unlikely that would change in a matchup like this.
It would be a tough ask for the 20-11 Portland State Vikings to take down a premier program like Illinois. They have a rather promising scoring margin of +6.4 on the year, but they have faced one of the worst schedules in the country, which is ranked No. 203 in the country.
To be fair, stranger things have happened in the Big Dance over the years. We witnessed a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed in 2018, when the UMBC Retrievers took down the Virginia Cavaliers by a score of 74-54. But with the Illini being the No. 1 team in the country when it comes to offensive efficiency, it's just hard to see an upset brewing in this one.
Would the Miami Hurricanes be able to vanquish the Orange and Blue?
The No. 3 team in the ACC has been on a hot streak recently, as they have won seven of their last nine conference matchups. They have kept things rather steady over the past number of weeks, especially after their 10-game winning streak was ended at the hands of the Clemson Tigers on January 17.
The Hurricanes have been very impressive in head coach Jai Lucas' first year with the team, ranking No. 29 in the country via KenPom with a net rating of +21.15. They have a roster that is filled with giants from across the world, with 6-foot-3 John Laboy being their shortest player and 6-foot-11 Ernest Udeh Jr. being their tallest.
If this matchup comes to fruition in the Round of 32, then Illinois would certainly need to be on its A-game when it comes to the battle on the glass. If they could limit Miami's opportunities and allow their elite offense to capitalize, then I'm sure they'd be able to squeeze out a win and a Sweet 16 appearance.
Could the Saint Louis Billikens take down the Illini in their home barn?
The Hurricanes are one possible opponent in this scenario for the Illini in the second round of the NCAA tournament, but if they can't get the job done in the first round, then Saint Louis would be moving on to the Round of 32.
The 27-4 Billikens, led by former Indiana State center and March Madness darling Robbie Avila, have been one of the top teams in the Atlantic-10 conference next to VCU. They are the No. 11 team offensively in the country, averaging 87.8 points per game, and have the fifth-best scoring margin at 18.7.
College basketball fans can argue this all they want, but this could end up being one of the most sneaky, dangerous matchups in the tournament if it were to happen. The Billikens have shown that they are a stout unit against their own conference, and will have their backs against the wall versus a No. 2 seed in their home barn.
Simply put, the Illini would need all hands on deck in a bout like this. They would need to play their game and not let things get out of hand like they almost did against Maryland to end the regular season. If they do, then this will certainly be a short March for a very promising squad.