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Mid-major NCAA tournament upsets should have Illinois basketball on high alert

The NCAA tournament has been a wild ride thus far, and Illinois should be taking notes on what not to do against Penn
Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood chats with Penn Quakers head coach Fran McCaffery during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood chats with Penn Quakers head coach Fran McCaffery during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Illinois basketball has the chance to watch the carnage taking place before the tipoff of their opening game of the NCAA tournament.

The Illini will take on the Penn Quakers at 8:25 p.m. CT/9:25 p.m. ET. This is a game that, if taking place in the regular season, I believe Illinois would win by 30 points.

This isn’t the regular season, though. There is a reason the term March Madness was coined. It isn’t because NCAA brackets go chalk. We aren’t even a full day into the NCAA tournament, and already, we are seeing some upsets.

One conference that is taking a hit right now is the Big Ten. The Big Dance festivities started with No. 8 Ohio State taking on No. 9 TCU.

While any result wouldn’t be an upset, the Big Ten got off on the wrong foot with the Buckeyes falling to the Horned Frogs, 66-64. This was already a dark mark on the conference, but what was about to transpire would be a surprise.

Just hours after the Ohio State defeat, No. 5 Wisconsin took on No. 12 High Point. The Badgers were a 10.5-point favorite heading into the game. The Panthers took the game to Wisconsin, and the result was that dreaded No. 12 over No. 5 upset.

Think about that for a second. A team in Wisconsin that Illinois played twice and couldn't beat, just lost to a team called High Point. That is terrifying.

So far, the only Big Ten team to go unscathed is No. 4 Nebraska. They took care of business against No. 14 Troy. But what the two Big Ten losses should do for Illinois is that it should wake us up.

We can’t take Penn lightly. They are a smart team with talent all around them. TJ Power is likely to play, and he can go off on any given night.

Illinois can’t look ahead. If we are eyeing the next round and a potential matchup with North Carolina, there is a solid chance we could get clipped by the Quakers. A loss would be devastating for the program and the belief that Brad Underwood can get it done in Champaign.

Illinois basketball is a heavy favorite heading into the NCAA tournament matchup with Penn

The Illini need to be ready to play on Thursday night. We are going to get the best that Penn has, and their head coach, Fran McCaffery, knows how Underwood coaches. That makes things even scarier.

Las Vegas has supreme confidence in the Illini, though. The current odds is Illinois -25.5-point favorite right now. That is a big number, only second to Michigan’s -30.5-point spread.

This is a massive night for Illinois. Let’s not give Penn any life. Put them away early, and let’s move on to bigger and better things.