The Illinois basketball program has done a great job putting the current rendition of the squad together.
This isn’t just a random team full of random players that Brad Underwood went out and got. He put together, piece by piece, a talented team that works well together. This cohesion has helped the Illini get off to a great start, sitting at 11-3 overall and notching a No. 16 ranking this week.
What helps with cohesion is having a freshman, who most programs looked over, excelling at every facet of the game.
Keaton Wagler has been phenomenal for the Orange and Blue. If you have watched any Illinois game this season, you would be amazed by this freshman. He has played in 14 games at the collegiate level and is averaging 15.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game.
But how does Wagler compare to other freshmen around the nation? Is he one of the best?
EvanMiya.com, a site that compiles numerous metrics around the college game, produced a list of the top freshmen this season. The metric is called the Bayesian Performance Rating, BPR, and it takes into account multiple factors.
The No. 1 spot is obviously Cameron Boozer. He might be the best player in college basketball, as he is carrying that Duke team right now. Coming into the season, Boozer was already the No. 1 projected freshman, too.
No. 2 is AJ Dybantsa, No. 3 is Kingston Flemings, and No. 4 is Caleb Wilson. All three of those players were projected as top 15 freshmen heading into the 2025-26 campaign.
Coming in at the No. 5 spot is Wagler. With a 7.35 BPR, Wagler is looked at as one of the elite freshmen in the college game. But what makes this ranking even more impressive is the fact that he wasn’t one of those top 15 freshmen that I mentioned.
Here are the nation's top freshmen, according to Bayesian Performance Rating at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax 👇 pic.twitter.com/QICKwS8dQR
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 6, 2026
Wagler wasn’t even a top 50 freshman. What about a top 100 freshman? Nope. He came into the season ranked as the No. 131 freshman in college basketball. Let that soak in for a second.
It makes sense, too. With only Illinois and Minnesota being his only two major scholarship offers, Wagler was looked over by many. But now, he is starting to get the national notoriety that is much deserved.
Keaton Wagler isn’t the only Illinois basketball freshman getting love from EvanMiya
Wagler is having an incredible season, and a lot of his great work is not going to show up in the box score. He has already taken a leadership role on this team. When Illinois needs a big bucket, he is the go-to guy. Wagler has emerged as the best player on one of the best teams in the country.
While Wagler is setting the world on fire, Illinois also has David Mirkovic, who is holding his own as a freshman.
Mirkovic makes an appearance on the EvanMiya.com metric, too. He is No. 13 on the list, and among the top 20, he was the second-lowest rated freshman coming into the season at No. 54, only second to Wagler.
I have been impressed with Mirkovic’s drive around the basket. He is always going and hustling for the basketball. He is someone who is going to be annoying to the opposing team, as Mirkovic bangs around in the paint and has quick hands.
Illinois has two freshmen who are major contributors. The jump from the preseason to now has been incredible for these great players. Underwood has done a great job building experience on this roster, but who would have thought that two of our main leaders would be freshmen? Crazy.