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Illinois vs. Houston opening odds give fans every right to think an upset is coming

By no means do the Vegas oddsmakers expect the Houston Cougars to run away with the Sweet 16 game against the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) controls the ball during the first half against the VCU Rams in a second-round game of the NCAA Tournament.
Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) controls the ball during the first half against the VCU Rams in a second-round game of the NCAA Tournament. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Illinois Fighting Illini are back in the Sweet 16, and they have an absolute powerhouse program on the horizon: the Houston Cougars.

While the Cougs have been nearly as dominant as a team can be under head coach Kelvin Sampson, the Illini haven't been too shabby under Brad Underwood, and this time around, the Illinois head coach is out for blood.

As Illinois prepares for its showdown in the third round of the NCAA Tournament, the oddsmakers clearly aren't ignoring the fact that the Fighting Illini have had dominant performances and are clearly nowhere near settled with just an appearance in the Sweet 16.

Opening odds for (3) Illinois vs. (2) Houston

  • Spread: -2.5 Houston
  • Money line: -156 Houston, +130 Illinois
  • Over-Under: +/-139.5 points

Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at any time.

Despite Houston dominating all season long, the Cougars are only favored to win by just 2.5 points, with an over-under point total set at a relatively low 139.5 points.

In other words, even the experts in Vegas can't shy away from the fact that Illinois could absolutely pull off the upset.

Neither team has been an underdog yet, heavily favored over each of their first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament. This time around, Illinois has a chance to pull off its own version of a "Cinderella run" by defeating the higher-seeded, odds-favored Cougars.

Of course, Illinois is fresh off its dominant, 21-point victory over the VCU Rams, the team that upset the No. 6-seed North Carolina Tar Heels in the first round. However, Houston just obliterated the 10-seed Texas A&M Aggies with a 31-point victory in the second round.

Simply put, these two teams are undeniable powerhouses this season, and this Sweet 16 showdown will be a clash of titans that could truly be anybody's game.

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