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Illinois is landing a favorable spot in updated NCAA tournament projection

The NCAA tournament is just days away, and the Illinois basketball team could find a nice landing spot
ByRees Woodcock|
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Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) celebrates after scoring against the Wisconsin Badgers during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) celebrates after scoring against the Wisconsin Badgers during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

I am pretty down on the Illinois basketball team right now, as we have floundered down the stretch.

Brad Underwood is right when he says that the Illini are one possession away from winning a ton more games. But here is the thing, folks, we didn’t win those games.

Illinois dropped five out of the last nine contests, four of which were in overtime. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, that is the saying, right? We don’t give out moral victories or half-wins for being close. The Illini can’t close these games out.

The result of the losing is dropping in the NCAA tournament projections. At one time, the Illini could have played into a No. 1 seed, but the most updated projection has Illinois falling down to the No. 3 seed.

This would only make sense. Honestly, losing that much probably should drop us more, but the strength of schedule has really bolstered Illinois’ resume.

I like the projected landing spot for Illinois, too. We would face No. 14 Wright State in the first round. They haven’t played anyone this season, and the average teams they did play in the non-conference, they ended up losing those games.

In the Round of 32, Illinois would then face either No. 6 Louisville or the winner of the play-in between No. 11 Miami (OH) and No. 11 Missouri. I would like this matchup for us, too.

A Sweet 16 battle for the Illinois basketball team could feature a rematch

Just two seasons ago, Illinois had a good team led by Terrence Shannon Jr. We entered the NCAA tournament as a No. 3 seed as well.

This team won the first two games by double-digit points. Illinois then entered the second weekend and played No. 2 Iowa State in the Sweet 16.

Well, that scenario could happen again. In the projection by ESPN, Illinois would likely face No. 2 Iowa State in the Sweet 16. This is a very winnable matchup for the Orange and Blue.

If we ended up coming out of that game, the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils could be waiting. This should be an interesting March Madness. Illinois has a chance to do something special, but we need to start turning the tide. That first round game is going to be crucial in getting confidence once again.

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