In the matter of a few hours, the outlook for the Illinois football program has turned bleak.
Heading into the weekend, many Illini fans had high expectations for the team. While we knew there were some issues based on how we played in the first three games, I thought Indiana was a very beatable program.
Well, on September 20, that clearly wasn’t the case. A 63-10 drubbing was the result, and now Illinois is looking for answers. We went from being a top 10 team that is currently projected in the College Football Playoff to a team that is thankful to still be in the AP Top 25.
That was just the first game of the Big Ten schedule, too. The next few weeks are going to be testy, and it all starts with now-No. 21 USC.
At the end of the day, it is just one game. A loss always hurts, but we move on at 3-1. It is not about the terrible loss, it is about how Illinois responds this week against the Trojans.
Honestly, when you break it all down, I believe the game on Saturday against USC will be the compass that guides Illinois for the rest of the 2025 campaign. This game will set the course for the Illini, good or bad.
A win against No. 21 USC puts Illinois football in contention for the College Football Playoff
There are only two ways the USC game can go. A loss would be devastating for the Illini. A win gets us back on track and pushing forward.
Let’s build out the hypothetical on if Illinois loses the game against the Trojans. That drops us down to 3-2 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten. It is an elimination game for the College Football Playoff, and at that point, a bowl game becomes the ultimate goal.
You have to think what lies ahead, too. So, Illinois is 3-2 overall with a road game against Purdue, and then No. 1 Ohio State comes to Champaign. Realistically, you are looking at 4-3 through seven games. That is a course that is just praying for a bowl game.
But a win, a win gets us in some interesting position moving forward. Let’s do the hypothetical win.
Illinois takes down No. 21 USC. That is a top 25 victory, which we would be 1-1 against top 25 programs at that point. On top of that, the Illini move to a respectable 4-1 on the season and prove that the Indiana blowout was somewhat of a product of the circumstances.
The course changes to a positive one. Illinois then heads to West Lafayette against a struggling Boilermaker squad. Those two wins would get us to 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten. That outlook is much better heading into the game against No. 1 Ohio State.
I would argue that the Illini would be a top 18 team in the country for that game against the Buckeyes. Ohio State coming into Champaign with Illinois desperate for a win would play into our favor greatly.
Even a loss against the Buckeyes would only drop Illinois to 5-2 overall. With the final five games being very winnable, the Illini could realistically finish 10-2 for the 2025 season. We would be 1-2 against top 25 programs. That gets us in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff.