Illinois football is heading into the 2025 season with a lot of confidence.
Even with running back Josh McCray transferring out, the Illini will have 17 starters returning from the Citrus Bowl win to end last year against South Carolina, a college football analyst is even considering them a top ten team.
Well-known Illinois fan and national writer for CBS Sports, Tom Fornelli, recently pointed out a game that Illinois football fans might be underestimating: a nonconference road game against Duke.
On Wednesday morning on the Cover 3 Podcast, while discussing whether first-year head coaches exceeded expectations or not in 2024, Fornelli cautioned, “I think a lot of Illinois fans are just kind of like writing W next to that one in ink. It’s like, I don’t know. That game is going to be tougher than you think.” His panel agreed that Duke, under Manny Diaz, surpassed expectations last season, making this road game a sneaky challenge for the Illini.
Historically, Illinois and Duke have met only twice, with Illinois winning the most recent matchup 28-14 in Champaign in 1965. However, Duke is no pushover. Under Mike Elko (2022-2023) and Diaz (2024), the Blue Devils have posted eight or more wins in each of the last three seasons.
History with Manny Diaz
Diaz is a defensive-minded coach whom Illinois faced when Diaz was the defensive coordinator at Penn State in 2023. Illinois only managed to score 13 points that day, and Luke Altmyer, in his third game as the starting quarterback for Illinois, had his worst game of his career, throwing for less than 200 yards and four interceptions.
Diaz has built a stout, upperclassman-heavy defense. They do not have the talent that Penn State had in 2023, but facing Diaz again will give Altmyer the opportunity to have his Illinois career come full circle and get revenge on the defensive coordinator who gave him fits early on at Illinois.
Duke has been impressive at home
Duke’s recent home performances are also a concern. They did manage to upset a top-ten-ranked Clemson team in 2023 and had a one-point loss to an SMU team that went to the College Football Playoff in 2024, proving they can compete with stronger programs.
However, the ACC is not the Big Ten in prestige or talent. Duke has been a plucky program the last few years, and they have seen success with two different coaches. But this Illinois team has a third-year starter with Altmyer, an experienced offensive line, and a defense with a lot of confidence coming off last year.
Duke’s home-field advantage and disciplined play style make this game a potential trap game. Bret Bielema and his team should come out with the win, but fans should heed Fornelli’s warning. Writing this off as an automatic victory could be a mistake. The Illini must remain focused and not get ahead of themselves this year. Preparation and respect for Duke’s capabilities will be key to securing the win in Durham.