We are extremely early in the 2025 season, and while polls are fun to analyze, none of it really matters at this point in the proceedings.
The first AP Top 25 poll was released a couple of weeks ago. A new one will be updated this Tuesday, thanks to Labor Day on Monday. I fully expect the Illini to remain as the No. 12 team in the country after a 52-3 win over Western Illinois.
While I am happy with the top 12 ranking for the Orange and Blue, I also realize that it doesn’t matter; it is a fugazi. And then you have a poll like the ESPN FPI.
On ESPN’s website, they explain what the ESPN FPI poll is in detail.
“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
ESPN also explains that the FPI is updated daily. Well, the new ESPN FPI was released on Sunday, and they have shown why this poll has absolutely no merit.
ESPN’s FPI has been updated following Saturday of Week 1📈📉https://t.co/hQeeiBaJkM pic.twitter.com/PzTxwxOrq6
— On3 (@On3sports) August 31, 2025
Illinois, a team that won 10 games last season and had 16 out of 22 starters return, isn’t in the top 15. We aren’t in the top 25. Shoot, the Illini didn’t even make the top 35. The ESPN FPI has Illinois at No. 38. This is behind nine other Big Ten squads, including Wisconsin and Washington.
In addition to those nine Big Ten teams ahead of Illinois in the ESPN FPI, South Carolina, a team Illinois beat in the Citrus Bowl, is ahead of us. USC, which was .500 in the regular season last season, is well ahead of the Illini.
ESPN FPI underestimating Illinois football isn’t anything new
I still can’t wrap my head around why Illinois is so low on the ESPN FPI. We also have a relatively easy schedule this season compared to others.
But when you look at the past, the ESPN FPI obviously doesn’t like what Illinois is building in Champaign. Let’s take a look at last season, for example.
In 2024, the Illini won 10 games and beat South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl. As of January 21, 2025, the final day the 2024 ESPN FPI was tabulated, Illinois was the No. 42 team in the country.
The ESPN FPI predicts how well a team will play for the season, but how can we finish No. 42? We beat FPI No. 15 South Carolina, No. 29 Michigan, No. 33 Kansas, and No. 38 Nebraska. How in the world can any ranking still rank Illinois behind all of those programs, when we finished with 10 wins and beat all of those teams?
There are plenty of clown shows in the world, but the ESPN FPI might be the biggest. My only hope is that the College Football Playoff doesn’t take anything from the ESPN FPI.