On Sunday night, we are going to hear the Illinois basketball team name called.
Before Brad Underwood, this used to be a special thing because the Illini wouldn’t get called every year on Selection Sunday. We were on the bubble constantly.
Since year three of the Underwood era, Illinois has made the NCAA tournament every season. It has been a mixed bag once we begin the festivities, though.
Illinois has had multiple second round exits, a first round departure, and then an Elite 8 run that we are all dying to get back to.
This year’s rendition of the Orange and Blue has the talent to at least make the second weekend. They have beaten some of the best teams in the country this season, but we have also lost five out of the last nine games, four of which were in overtime.
Illinois has had so many close games this season, too. Underwood commented on this fact when a reporter asked him a question he didn’t like last week. He mentioned that Illinois has been in close games and won. Well, I wanted to dive into that.
I looked at the games this season in which the margin between Illinois and our opponent was five points or fewer with five minutes to go in regulation. If it was more than five points, the game isn’t included.
During the 2025-26 campaign, Illinois had eight games that were within five points or fewer with five minutes to go in the contest. We are 4-4 in those games.
The games the Illini have won are December 9 vs Ohio State (up 5, won by 8), January 11 vs Iowa (up 5, won by 6), January 17 vs Minnesota (up 4, won by 10), and January 24 vs Purdue (down 3, won by 6).
The games Illinois fell short in the final five minutes include February 7 vs Michigan State (up 2, lost by 3), February 10 vs Wisconsin (up 5, lost by 2), February 21 vs UCLA (down 4, lost by 1), and March 13 vs Wisconsin (up 1, lost by 3).
There is one glaring number that has affected the Illinois basketball program in the losses
So, for those counting at home, Illinois won the first four games that were within five points at the five-minute mark in the second half. We are now on a four-game losing streak in these close games. But what is the difference?
With such tight margins, every point matters. I looked at numerous stats, but the one stat that was the biggest difference between the wins and losses was the simplest of them all.
Free throws.
In the games Illinois won and the margin was within five points at the five-minute mark in the second half, we shot a combined 21-of-24 from the free throw line. That is an impressive 87.5%.
If you look at the four games we lost, the combined free throw shooting wasn’t nearly as good. Illinois was just 24-of-34 from the charity stripe. That is 70.6% shooting.
Illinois plays plenty of close games. We have to convert at the free throw line. There is nearly a 17% difference in free throw shooting between wins and losses in close games. If the Illini had just converted from the charity stripe, who knows where we would be right now?
I do know one thing for sure. If Illinois shoots 70.6% from the free throw line in the NCAA tournament, we could be packing our bags early. If we are closer to the 87.5%, this team could make a deep run. The simplest stat in the world could determine our future in the Big Dance.