The Illinois basketball program is entering the 2026-27 season with some of the biggest hype in recent memory.
Brad Underwood got this team to the Final Four last season, and most of the roster returned. The Illini are expected to be a unanimous top-five program to start the season, and the first KenPom rankings agree.
KenPom released their preseason rankings on Sunday, and Illinois checks in as the No. 4 team in the country. Duke, Florida, and Houston are ahead of the Illini, in that order.
KenPom’s preseason rankings are officially out, with Duke opening the season at No. 1 … pic.twitter.com/Gz6NuyULug
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) October 11, 2026
Illinois has the offensive rating to be the top team. We have a 125.4 offensive rating, which is the second-best in the country. Only Florida is ahead of us. Where Illinois falls short is on defense.
KenPom’s algorithm doesn’t think the Illini will have a good defensive squad this season. Illinois has a 95.6 defensive rating, which is No. 22 in the nation. No other team in the top eight has a double-digit defensive rating, while Illinois is in the 20s.
Honestly, this is a fair assessment of Illinois’ defense. Last season, we gave up 68.8 points per game, which ranked No. 45 in the nation. That was with Kylan Boswell, who was arguably our best defender.
Boswell is now gone, so that hurts the backcourt defense. Illinois still has Zvonimir Ivisic coming off the bench, who will give us our rim-protecting ability and frontcourt presence, along with his brother Tomislav.
There is likely to be a drop-off in defensive performance. EvanMiya.com has a Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), and it has the big three players Illinois lost last season with DBPRs of: Keaton Wagler 2.29, Boswell 1.88, and Ben Humrichous 1.80.
Illinois’ top three replacements for those three are Quentin Coleman 2.05, Lucas Morillo 1.23, and Stefan Vaaks 1.06.
Numbers show there will likely be some type of defensive drop-off. The one caveat I would throw out there is that we don’t know what type of defense the freshmen might bring to Illinois. Coleman and Morillo are both freshmen, and they could be better than what the ratings show.
Regardless of the defensive performance, Illinois basketball should be able to put up numbers on offense
While the defense might be frustrating at times, Illinois will have an exciting brand of basketball on the offensive end.
KenPom has the Illini with the second-best offensive rating. It would make sense, given that Illinois is a deeper team this season than last, and we like to fire from three-point range.
Illinois scored 83.2 points per game and hit 34.5% of our three-point attempts. I expect the Illini to look similar in 2026-27.
Wagler and Humrichous are hits to the offense, as both players shot 39.7% and 36.1% from three-point range, respectively. Boswell was at 30.7%.
I believe Illinois could see a bump in three-point shooting this season, though. Vaaks enters the picture after a freshman season of scoring 15.8 points per game and shooting 35.0% from three-point range.
Coleman had a big senior year in high school, averaging 23.1 points per game and hitting 50.0% from three-point range. I wouldn’t sleep on Morillo, either. He attempted 3.3 three-pointers per game last season as a senior and hit them at a clip of 40.0%.
Could Illinois’ defense take a dip in 2026-27? Sure, but the offense is there to pick up the pieces. Look for Underwood to be screaming early on, but this team will settle into their roles quickly.
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