Illinois basketball has a national championship storm brewing with key transfer portal and recruiting additions

Illinois basketball came so close to getting to the mountaintop of the college basketball world in 2026.

Making it back to the Final Four after multiple decades was surreal. I didn’t think the Illini were ever getting back to that point, but it happened, and now I want more.

The ultimate goal now is a national championship. Thankfully, Brad Underwood was able to storm the offseason with a game plan of bringing most of the talent back, and he succeeded with flying colors.

On Saturday, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports posted on social media the Big Ten returning scoring percentage by team. There were some numbers that stood out the most.

Illinois leads the way at 65.4% of our scoring from a Final Four run returning the roster. That is first and foremost the most important stat from that post.

Another thing I want to note is that Indiana only brought back 5% of their scoring. That is an insanely low number, and I am not sure how they are going to be able to compete in the Big Ten.

But let’s focus on actual good teams, like Illinois. With national title aspirations, I wanted to see what the returning scorer percentage was for the last six national champs, since the transfer portal became a thing.

In the first two seasons, with the transfer portal still not in full effect, there was still the idea of coming back to your program. The 2021 Baylor title had 71.7% of their scorers return from the year prior. The 2022 Kansas crown had 79.4% of their scoring return to the team from the season before. Both of those national title teams also had their top three scorers return.

After those two championships, things started to go off the rails a bit.

In 2023, UConn won the national championship with 34.9% of their scoring on the roster from the year before. They also had four of their top five scorers depart.

The Huskies defended their national championship the next year with 43.3% of their scoring returning from the previous title. They also lost their top two scorers from that championship team.

Florida had a great run to win the 2025 national championship. That squad had 58.8% of their scoring from the year prior come back and secure the crown. They also lost two out of their top three scorers and still won it all.

And last season, Michigan took home the national championship with 40.1% of their scoring on the roster from the year before. They also had to replace their top three scorers to win that title.

• 2026 – Michigan 40.1% (lost top 3 scorers)
• 2025 – Florida 58.8% (lost 2 of top 3 scorers)
• 2024 – UConn 43.3% (lost top 2 scorers)
• 2023 – UConn 34.9% (lost 4 of top 5 scorers)
• 2022 – Kansas 79.4% (top 3 scorers returned)
• 2021 – Baylor 71.7% (top 3 scorers returned)

It seems that Illinois basketball might have the right formula to make a serious run at winning a national championship

I kind of throw the 2021 and 2022 national championships out of this discussion because the transfer portal wasn’t in full effect yet. So, just looking at the last four champs, there seems to be a trend.

You have to have a decent portion of your roster return. The lowest is UConn at 34.9%, and the highest is Florida at 58.8%.

What is most important to me is the ability to fill in the gaps left by the departing players. Transfer portal and recruiting activity are key to getting a program over the hump and to the ultimate goal.

Last season, Michigan’s top four scorers consisted of three transfer portal additions and a freshman, while they still brought back 40.1% of their scoring. Florida kept 58.8% of their roster in their title run, but their second-leading scorer that season was a huge transfer portal addition.

You can continue on, too. The 2024 UConn squad that retained 43.3% of their talent en route to a title added a transfer portal talent who was their second-leading scorer, and a freshman who went on to be in the NBA Draft and became the Rookie of the Year.

Illinois clearly has the right formula to do what these previous national championship teams have done to get to the top of the mountain.

We are bringing back 65.4% of our scoring from a Final Four run. That alone puts us in the discussion for a title. Illinois then brought in a great transfer portal talent in Stefen Vaaks, who is going to be a top-three scorer on the team.

In addition to the transfer portal snag, Underwood was able to land Quentin Coleman, a five-star guard. That freshman infusion, who will likely be a first round NBA talent, will go a long way in securing our first national championship.

The season hasn’t started, and no one knows what will happen in 2026-27. I will say this, much like a storm, when the conditions are right, you can see it coming from a mile away. The conditions are right for the Orange and Blue. There is a storm brewing.

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