It has been a pretty magical run thus far for the Illinois basketball program.
At press time, the Illini sit at 22-5 overall and 13-3 in the Big Ten. The 2025-26 campaign has been good to the program, and there is a chance it gets even better in the coming weeks.
The big question remains of what path Illinois will take to finish out the season. Will we continue to rise, sink, or remain right where we are heading into March?
Let’s start off with the worst-case scenario…
Illinois basketball floor
There are four games left in the season. We have at UCLA on Saturday night. No. 1 Michigan and Oregon are both in Champaign. And then the regular season concludes with a road game against Maryland.
Illinois ends with a relatively easy schedule. Even with the worst-case scenario, I think we beat UCLA, Oregon, and Maryland. That puts us at 25-6 overall and 16-3 in the Big Ten.
The big game is the one at home against the top team in the country. Michigan has a really good team, and in this scenario, let’s say Illinois lays an egg and drops to the Wolverines by double-digits.
The Illini then head into the Big Ten Tournament as a top-three seed thanks to what we have done in the regular season. That would have us playing at best the No. 6 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. I like our chances with any team that isn’t in the top five in the conference.
A win in the first game of the Big Ten Tournament and a loss in the next round would probably be the floor right now. That is as low as I think Illinois could end up finishing as we speak.
What does that do for NCAA tournament seeding? Honestly, both of those finishing losses would be against Quad 1 programs, so I believe the floor for the Illini is a No. 2 seed in the postseason.
Illinois basketball ceiling
With four games left, Illinois has a massive opportunity to skyrocket up the NCAA tournament ladder.
Obviously, we beat the three unranked Big Ten teams left on the schedule. The matchup against No. 1 Michigan would be huge. Illinois is at home for this game, and there is a lot of juice flowing with Morez Johnson Jr. showing his face in Champaign again.
Illinois takes that fire and beats the projected top overall seed in the NCAA tournament. That gives the Illini a massive win when it comes to seeding for the postseason.
With the victory, Illinois locks up the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, as Michigan has a two-game lead on us for the regular season crown.
The Illini would take on, probably, the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten in the Elite 8 of the conference tournament. You are looking at an Iowa or Ohio State in this game, most likely. We are 2-0 against those teams this season.
In the next game, Illinois is likely to play the No. 3 seed, which is probably going to be Nebraska because they have an easy schedule to finish out. Illinois split the season series against the Cornhuskers, and I think we can knock them off again.
That win puts the Illini in the Big Ten title game. Michigan is likely the matchup here. The game is in Chicago, so the crowd would be evenly split, I would assume. It is hard to see sweeping the Wolverines. I wish Illinois would, but Dusty May is a great coach, so let’s give this one to Michigan.
So, Illinois wins out in the regular season and makes the Big Ten title game. We knocked off No. 1 Michigan in one of those games and lost a close one in the other game against the Wolverines. At the end of the day, I think this gets Illinois a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. There is a legitimate possibility the Big Ten has two No. 1 seeds. Let’s make it happen.