We are just days away from the Big Ten Tournament, and there is some movement to be had for the Illinois basketball program.
Thankfully, the Illini have played well enough this season that the bottom isn’t very low when it comes to how far we can drop in the Big Ten Standings on the final day of the season.
Illinois is still jockeying for position in the NCAA tournament, too. There is potential to maybe move up to a coveted No. 1 seed if some chaos breaks out and we take care of business. But the Big Ten Tournament will determine everything.
Here is the Illinois basketball best, worst, and most likely Big Ten Tournament seeding
Illinois basketball best case scenario for Big Ten Tournament
- #11 Illinois beats Maryland
- Iowa beats #9 Nebraska
There isn’t a ton of movement upward for Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament. As we enter the final day of the regular season, there is only one spot the Ilini can move.
Illinois obviously has to beat Maryland. That is objective No. 1. The next thing that needs to happen is that Iowa needs to knock off No. 9 Nebraska.
The Hawkeyes are playing for NCAA tournament seeding right now. They are a projected No. 9 seed, and a win over a top 10 program could boost them up to a No. 7 seed. That would be big for them, so they are playing for something.
If this scenario happens, Illinois then has a 15-5 Big Ten record, and Nebraska drops to 14-6 in the conference. We would move up one spot and secure the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
Illinois basketball worst case scenario for Big Ten Tournament
- Maryland beats #11 Illinois
- #9 Nebraska beats Iowa
This would be a terrible scenario for the Illini. Losing to Maryland would be horrible, as it would not only hurt us in the Big Ten standings, but it would kill us in the NCAA tournament projection.
The Terrapins can’t beat us on Sunday, but if they do, that would drop Illinois to 14-6 in the Big Ten. That would put us in a tie for fourth place with Wisconsin.
Illinois would lose the Big Ten Tournament tiebreaker, as the first criterion for a tie between two teams is head-to-head. The Illini fell to the Badgers in the lone game we played against them this season.
In a shocker, Illinois would drop down to the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, and we would start the festivities on Thursday instead of Friday and miss out on the triple-bye.
Illinois basketball most likely scenario for Big Ten Tournament
- #11 Illinois beats Maryland
- #9 Nebraska beats Iowa
- #3 Michigan beats #8 Michigan State
I believe the results listed above will likely happen on Sunday. Illinois will hopefully come out and put the Terrapins away early. That would seal up a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
Nebraska shouldn’t have a problem with Iowa, as they aren’t great defensively and don’t have a ton of weapons on offense.
Another layer to the madness is that Michigan State is in Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. I think the Wolverines will beat the Spartans.
This would force a three-way tie for second place in the Big Ten. Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State would all be 15-5 in the conference.
Illinois will still lose out in this scenario, though. With a three-way tie, the tiebreaker is the record against the other tied teams. Illinois is 1-2 against Michigan State and Nebraska. Nebraska is 2-1 against Illinois and Michigan State. The Spartans are 1-1 against Illinois and Nebraska.
With this most likely scenario, Illinois still finishes as the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Nebraska would then jump Michigan State and become the No. 2 seed, with the Spartans finishing as a No. 3 seed.