Explaining the Illinois basketball transfer portal 3-point struggles

Illinois basketball has struggled on the court recently, as a combination of injuries and illness has ravaged the program.

After starting the 2024-25 campaign 12-3 overall, the Illini have now dropped five out of the last eight contests.

A big part of the losing is the terrible three-point shooting by the Orange and Blue. Illinois has hit rock bottom when it comes to shooting from deep, as the team is hitting 30.7% from three-point range, ranking No. 312 out of 364 teams in the country.

The bad three-point shooting has people scratching their heads. It also has people analyzing what is going on with the Illini under Brad Underwood.

Joe Jackson of the Feed the Post YouTube channel put together some numbers on transfers into the Illinois basketball program and three-point shooting.

Jackson pulled three-point shooting numbers from 13 Illinois transfers before they came to Champaign and since they arrived in Underwood’s offense. In the numbers Jackson presented, only three out of 13 transfers are shooting better from deep since coming to Illinois. Those three players were Quincy Guerrier, Alfonso Plummer, and Jacob Grandison.

The reasoning behind Jackson pulling the numbers is that he wanted to explore if the Illinois strength and condition program that is making players more muscular could be correlated to the decline of players’ shooting with the Illini.

On the surface, it may look like there is something to the argument. But when you put a little nuance to the declining numbers, it seems to clear things up a bit.

Here is a breakdown of the 10 Illinois basketball transfers who have declining three-point shooting numbers

• Numbers aren’t telling the story

There are two players whose numbers don’t tell the entire story. In the numbers that were pulled by Jackson, he had Terrence Shannon Jr.’s three-point shooting percentage at 35.1% before coming to Illinois and 34.4% with the Illini.

While the numbers are correct, let’s give them a little more context. In three seasons at Texas Tech, Shannon shot 205 three-point attempts. He shot 213 three-pointers in his final season at Illinois. Shannon shot 35.1% at Texas Tech, and he shot 36.2% in his final season with the Illini.

The other player we need to add more context to is Matthew Mayer. Jackson’s numbers show that Mayer shot 34.5% from three-point range in the four seasons before Illinois and 33.0% in the lone season in Champaign.

What the numbers don’t show is that Mayer only shot 186 three-point attempts in his first three seasons with Baylor. In year four with the Bears, Mayer was let loose and shot 136 three-pointers. He shot 32.4% in that final season with Baylor. With the Illini, Mayer attempted 203 three-pointers and shot 33.0%. That is a year-over-year improvement, and he had 67 more attempts.

• Legit argument

I think there is only one transfer you can legitimately question and that is Kylan Boswell. This one doesn’t make sense on paper.

The only thing I can attribute Boswell’s struggles to is an adjustment. He was one of the top dogs at Arizona, and now he is in a new system and it takes some time to get comfortable. Boswell has yet to find a role on this team too.

There have been multiple players who had an adjustment to make. Shannon didn’t come in and light the world on fire. He had struggles in that first season but then had a great final year. I don’t think getting more muscular has anything to do with Boswell’s struggles, though.

• Small fish in a big pond

There are three players on the list that I attribute to small fish in a big pond. That means these transfers came from smaller schools and now they are thrown into the Big Ten where the defense is tougher and players are bigger and more physical.

Ben Humrichous is the latest example. He shot 36% from three-point range with Huntington University in the NAIA. He then shot 41.4% with Evansville last season. Humrichous is shooting 34.8% with the Illini thus far. This is Humrichous' first and only season at the major DI level, so there is an adjustment. He is feeling that through 23 games.

Marcus Domask and Mark Alstork are great examples of this as well. Domask came from Southern Illinois and Alstork from Wright State.

Domask shot 35.5% in four seasons at Southern Illinois and 29.7% in one season with the Illini. I still believe he made a good transition from mid-major to Illinois, but players are just bigger, faster, and stronger, so it is harder to get a good shot from the perimeter.

In three seasons before Illinois, Alstork shot 36.8% from three-point range. He shot 24.1% at Illinois. The thing with Alstork is that he only took 79 three-point attempts with the Illini. It is a different level of competition in the Big Ten, and Alstork’s numbers reflected that.

• Sample size too small

Lastly, there are a group of players who have too small of a sample size. Honestly, Alstork could be thrown into this category too, but I left this category to the final four transfers on the list.

Tre White averaged 28.6% from three-point range at USC and Louisville. That number dropped to 23.8% at Illinois this season. White is averaging less than 2.0 three-point attempts at Illinois, and he has only attempted 42 three-pointers. If he just made three more three-pointers in the first 21 games, he would be shooting a career-high.

This narrative can be applied to all four players in the sample size is too small list. Jake Davis went from shooting 40.6% as a freshman at Mercer to now shooting 31.8% at Illinois. Davis has only attempted 44 three-point attempts in 21 games this season. He attempted 155 three-point attempts in 33 games at Mercer. The sample size is just too small at Illinois. One good shooting game and Davis is right at his average from last season.

Carey Booth shouldn’t be included on this list at all. He has only shot 23 three-point attempts this season. One miss skews the numbers completely. If he would have made just two more three-pointers in the first 17 games he played, he would be averaging a career-high.

And then you have Justin Harmon. He could fit into multiple categories. He came from Utah Valley, a really small school. The defense is tougher in the Big Ten. Also, he only attempted 72 three-pointers at Illinois. If he just made three more three-pointers in the 38 games he played, he would have shot a career-high.

• Breaking it all down

So, to wrap things up, I think the theory that Illinois getting in better shape is hurting transfer’s three-point shooting is probably not correct.

10 transfers were shooting worse after coming to Champaign. Four of those transfers were or are literally one good game away from shifting their difference to a positive number, that is how small their three-point shooting sample size is with Illinois.

Two out of the 10 players actually improved their numbers in some form. Three out of the 10 transfers likely have had a tough time adjusting to the higher level of defensive competition. And then there is one Illinois transfer who might be having issues with finding his role on a new team. An adjustment period of sorts.

At the end of the day, I wouldn’t put too much stock into the numbers posted by Jackson. Illinois has had a ton of transfers, and most of these players have helped the team win a lot of games. The development plan that Underwood has put into place seems to be working, and I wouldn’t change course any time soon.