On Thursday night, the Illinois basketball team heads down to Texas to take on Houston in the NCAA tournament.
Making it to the Sweet 16 would have been a pipe dream with the previous Illini regime. With Brad Underwood at the helm, it is now a floor for the Orange and Blue.
Getting to the Sweet 16 every season is the expectation. Getting past this point is what has tripped up many Illinois coaches in the past.
In 1985, the NCAA tournament went from 53 teams to the current 64-team bracket we see today. I know it is 68 with the play-in games, but it is 64 teams when the dust settles.
Since that expansion over 40 years ago, Illinois has made the NCAA tournament and won the first two rounds by double-digit points against each opponent seven times. The first time it happened was the very first year of expansion in 1985, when the Illini won the first round game over No. 14 Northeastern by 19 points and the second round matchup over No. 6 Georgia by 16 points.
This same double-digit margin in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament happened six more times for Illinois throughout the years: 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2024, and now in 2026.
What happens on Thursday night will end up determining what side of history Underwood lands on. There are two ways he can obviously go. Lose and bow out in the Sweet 16, or win and advance on in the NCAA tournament.
Historically, it has been a mixed bag for Illinois coaches.
Underwood landed on the right side of history just two years ago. Illinois won their first two rounds by 16 points and 26 points, respectively. We then beat Iowa State to get to the Elite 8.
In the prior six times this scenario has occurred prior to this season, Illinois has advanced past the Sweet 16 three times, and we have failed to get out of the Sweet 16 three times.
Joining the 2024 squad in moving on from the Sweet 16 was the 2005 team that went to the National Championship, and the 2001 squad, which advanced on to the Elite 8.
The three teams that couldn’t make it out of the Sweet 16 were the 1985, 2002, and 2003 squads.
Illinois basketball is always falling to the top teams this late into the NCAA tournament
There are always Cinderella stories in the NCAA tournament, but the weird thing with the Illini is that we never run into those programs.
When Illinois bows out of the postseason in the Sweet 16 or later, it is always against either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
The last four times Illinois has won by double-digit points in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, the team that would ultimately take us down is a No. 1 seed. In 1985 and 2001, we fell to No. 2 seeds.
This season, Illinois is taking on another No. 2 seed in Houston. It would have been nice to get a little luckier as we did in the first two rounds by playing a double-digit seed, but beggars can’t be choosers. Illinois is back in the Sweet 16, and we are looking to keep dancing after Thursday. Hopefully, Underwood lands on the right side of history, and this magical season continues on.