Brad Underwood has restored Illinois basketball to perennial Big Ten contention, but for all the regular-season success he’s brought to Champaign, the Illini have left a lot to be desired in the postseason over his first eight years at the helm.
This is Illinois’s sixth-straight trip to the Big Dance, but during that stretch, Underwood has only led his team past the first weekend one time, an Elite Eight appearance in 2024. To get back to the South Regional Final this year, the Illini now must go through second-seeded Houston, in Houston.
Playing Houston at all is a tough draw. With Florida, Houston, and Illinois, the South Region has three teams in the top six in KenPom. Playing Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars in their own backyard is brutal. But bad draw or not, this season is Elite Eight or bust, so despite reaching just his second Sweet 16 at Illinois with a 76-55 win over 11-seed VCU on Saturday night in Greenville, South Carolina, this season is not yet a success.
It’s Elite Eight or bust for Brad Underwood’s Illini
With the surprise emergence of Keaton Wagler as a freshman superstar, and a timely return to health for Kylan Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic after missing some time throughout the year, the stars have aligned for Illinois to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2005. At least, it seemed that they had until Selection Sunday.
Was it unfair that Illinois drew a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Houston, coming off a trip to the national title game last year? Probably. By KenPom, Illinois is clearly the highest-rated No. 3 seed. By the Net Rankings, the Illini are eighth in the country, second-highest of a No. 3 seed only behind Gonzaga, which finished seventh. Houston, fourth in KenPom and fifth in Net, is clearly the best No. 2 seed and was the No. 5 overall seed in the field. Drawing Houston in Houston just adds insult to injury.
The flipside of Illinois getting the top No. 2 seed, however, is that Florida, the top seed in the South Region, is clearly the weakest of the four No. 1s in the field. So, if the Illini can get past the Cougars, the South presents the best Elite Eight matchup, assuming the seeds hold.
Underwood ended a lengthy NCAA Tournament drought by making the field in 2021, though his team would have made it in 2020 had the tournament not been canceled by the COVID-19 pandemic. He’s reasserted the program to a prominent place in college basketball and embraced the changing landscape of the Transfer Portal and influx of European talent, as well as any coach in the country. By just about any measure, his tenure has been a resounding success.
But as unfair as it may be, college basketball coaches are judged by what they do in March, and Underwood’s four exits in the first weekend of the Big Dance have Illini fans itching for a deep tournament run. That means more than just a Sweet 16 appearance because this team is good enough to win it all.