Illinois basketball is entering the Round of 32 of the NCAA tournament with high hopes of reaching the second weekend.
The Illini had expectations changed dramatically early on during the 2025-26 campaign when everyone realized that this team could do something special this season.
Keaton Wagler emerged as a viable No. 1 option, and he would eventually go on to be an All-American. Illinois gelled like no other Orange and Blue team in the past. It was fun to watch, and now there is a golden opportunity that awaits.
Illinois gets another double-digit seed to advance to the Sweet 16.
Surprisingly, playing two double-digit seeds to get to the second weekend isn’t that rare. The scenarios are what make this unique.
I pulled the data from the last five NCAA tournaments. There have been 27 single-digit seeds that have played double-digit seeds and advanced to the Sweet 16 in that five-year span.
Out of the 27 matchups there have been between single-digit seeds and the double-digit seed to get to the Sweet 16, only eight of those games have the double-digit seed won. But all eight of those occurrences are unique. They aren’t a little program taking out a big program.
When one of the top seeds loses to a double-digit seed in the Round of 32, it is always against one of the major programs. Last season, there were four matchups that featured a single-digit seed trying to get to the Sweet 16 by playing two double-digit seeds. The only team to fail to make it to the second weekend was No. 2 St. John’s. Their Round of 32 matchup was against No. 10 Arkansas, a major program packed with talent.
In 2024, six single-digit teams played two double-digit seeds to advance to the Sweet 16, and none of those programs lost. They all advanced.
There was some carnage in 2021, 2022, and 2023, though. In 2023, there was an upset in the first round, and No. 7 Missouri played No. 15 Princeton in the Round of 32. Princeton won that game.
2022 had four losses of a single-digit seed losing to a double-digit seed in the Round of 32. No.7 Murray State fell to No. 15 Saint Peter’s. No. 3 Wisconsin fell to No. 11 Iowa State, No. 2 Auburn lost to No. 10 Miami (FL), and No. 3 Tennessee fell to No. 11 Michigan.
You then have three losses in 2021. No. 4 Oklahoma State lost to No. 12 Oregon State, No. 3 West Virginia fell to No. 11 Syracuse, and No. 7 Florida came up short against No. 15 Oral Roberts.
What makes this a golden opportunity for Illinois is the fact that teams in our position don’t lose to mid-majors.
There are two things to notice about the upsets in the last five seasons. The first thing is that the high single-digit seeds that lose are falling to major programs. When you are a top-four seed and lose in the Round of 32 to a double-digit seed, you are losing to another major program.
The second thing is that when teams are losing to a double-digit mid-major, it is a much higher seed. You aren’t getting mid-majors beating top-four seeds to advance to the Sweet 16. These mid-majors are taking out teams that are seeds No. 7 or higher.
If Illinois basketball just plays quality basketball, there is no question they can put VCU away early
I have been waiting for the Illini to play quality basketball. We looked great earlier in the season, but in the last month, things kind of went off the rails. We lost our edge a bit.
That edge was found against Penn. Illinois came out aggressive, and we played sound defense. That had been missing for a while.
Illinois has the horse to run VCU right out of the gym. A team like the Illini with a No. 3 seed has historically taken care of business against a mid-major double-digit seed in the Round of 32. It is time to continue that trend on Saturday night.