Will Riley, Illinois basketball's highly touted freshman and a projected 2025 NBA Draft lottery pick, faces a pivotal decision: enter the draft or return to Champaign for another season.
On a recent episode of Locked On Illini, I joined host Sunny Verma to discuss the recent experience of former Illini star Terrence Shannon Jr. After two seasons at Illinois, Shannon is now a rookie with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
After seeing how Shannon's year as a rookie has gone in Minnesota, it could significantly influence Riley’s choice. Shannon’s journey offers a cautionary tale about the challenges of transitioning to the NBA and the potential benefits of staying in college to boost draft stock.
With Shannon selected No. 27 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft, Riley could find himself in a similar position as CBS Sports Insider, Gary Parrish, has Riley being selected No. 26 by the Brooklyn Nets in his NBA mock draft from April 28.
"Riley didn't get as much attention as some other freshmen- but he was a reliable double-digit scorer for an NCAA Tournament team from start to finish. At Illinois, the long-and-lean wing showed playmaking ability. But the jumper is still more streaky than reliable, and he also needs to add strength."Gary Parrish, CBS Sports Insider
Additionally, Shannon was expected to leverage his NBA-ready physique and scoring prowess right away. However, Parrish doesn't seem to think Riley is quite the ready-made product on the court, as some people thought about Shannon.
Despite a more notable college career than Riley's, his rookie season has been a mixed bag. Shannon averaged 23 points per game and led Illinois to an Elite Eight appearance. Riley averaged 12.6 points per game and was a key contributor to Illinois finishing its season in round two of the NCAA tournament. With Shannon only playing 32 games for the Timberwolves and spending a significant amount of time in the G League, it's not hard to see a similar fate for Riley.
Not only did Riley not have the production of Shannon in college, but he was only 19, and is less physically developed than the 23-year-old Shannon was. Entering the NBA prematurely could result in limited playing time or stints in the G-League.
If Riley wants to play big-time basketball, that matters, and not risk time in the G-League, Illinois is the place to do it. Plus, Illinois' NIL program will have time to raise funds to match or approach the figure at which Riley would likely be paid as a mid-to-late draft pick in the 20s. Offering Riley a chance to return would give him more time to physically develop, refine his game, and elevate his draft stock.
To be clear, returning to Illinois for Riley still seems like a long shot, but the glory of playing in college basketball and being an All-Big Ten or All-American candidate could potentially raise his stock to become a lottery pick in 2026, where contracts can reach up to $7-8 million.
Illinois has also assembled a talented roster featuring players like the Ivisic brothers, Kylan Boswell, Andrej Stojakovic, and more. If Riley returns, Illinois has a case to be a top-five preseason team. Shannon’s experience so far in the NBA might emphasize patience and development over an early leap. For Riley, staying in college could mean a competitive financial offer, playing on a more impactful team, and a shot at a Final Four, which could land him a more lucrative NBA future.