The Illinois basketball team has a set opponent, and we get the chance to take on a pesky Xavier squad.
On Wednesday night, the Illini got to see what type of team Xavier has. They went up against Texas and ended up beating the Longhorns with great shooting and a resilient effort.
This was hopefully a good scouting session for the Illinois coaches. Xavier can hit shots with the best of the best, and Illinois needs to be ready for a barrage of shots from long range.
There are a few keys to this game, though. If Illinois can do these things, then I think we will advance to the second round of the NCAA tournament for the second straight season.
Here are three keys for the Illinois basketball team to beat the Xavier Musketeers
1. Illinois needs to crush the rebounding margin
Throughout the season, Illinois has been one of the most inconsistent teams. There are times we have looked like the best program in the country. Then there are other times when we look like a bubble team.
One of the few consistent things throughout the roller coaster has been rebounding the basketball. The Illini can hold their own night in and night out, and we are going to need that against Xavier.
For the season, Illinois averages 42.5 rebounds per game, which is only second in the country to Alabama, which averages 43.1 rebounds per contest. Xavier, on the other hand, only pulls down 33.5 rebounds per game, which ranks No. 250 in the country.
Morez Johnson Jr. and Tomislav Ivisic are going to be crucial in the paint. We are going to need them to gobble up the rebounds on a regular basis. Xavier is likely going to shoot well, so when there is a missed shot by either team, Illinois needs to scoop up the rebound for an extra opportunity.
I think the rebounding margin for the Illini needs to be at least +10. If we can hit that mark, then I think we can avoid the upset.
2. Defensive energy from the Illini bench
I have always been worried about Xavier’s shooting, as they can hit from anywhere on the court. But one thing that piqued my interest after the Texas game is their bench.
Xavier isn’t a top-heavy team. They spread the wealth, and that worries me greatly because Illinois has some major weak spots defensively. Ben Humrichous can’t guard anyone. Illinois’ bench also struggles defensively.
I believe if Illinois wants to secure the victory on Friday night, we are going to need our bench to bring a ton of defensive energy. Illinois needs role players who give us 5-10 minutes to make game-changing defensive plays.
One of the biggest worries off the bench is Jake Davis. While I like him offensively, he is a massive defensive liability. He gets on his heels when a player drives. He can’t keep up with the ball handler. And Davis has a slow first step.
I just need Davis to be a B- defender or better. Get physical. If he fouls out, it isn’t a huge deal, but he needs to set the tone. I am also looking for Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn to bring his usual energy to the court. He can help rally the troops and get us right defensively. I think the bench defensive energy is going to be huge for the Illini.
3. The Illini can’t get lazy on the perimeter
The last key I want to point out kind of goes hand-in-hand with what I said in the last note. Illinois’ perimeter defense needs to be on point against Xavier, or they will shoot us right out of the building.
This isn’t a No. 11 seed. I don’t care what number is actually next to their name. Xavier has a ton of talent, and that talent isn’t just athletic. They can shoot the ball better than most of the teams we have played this season.
A team doesn’t just slop into a season-long three-point shooting percentage of 39.1%. That is a large sample size. Out of the 33 games Xavier has played this season, they have shot at least 37% from three-point range in 18 of those contests.
On top of that number, Xavier has also shot at least 35% from three-point range in each of the last six games, which includes three games of over 47% from distance. Those are insane numbers.
Illinois hasn’t been good defensively on the perimeter either. We have allowed our opponents to shoot at least 45% from three-point range in the last two games. In nine out of the last 12 games, our opponent has shot at least 37% from three-point range as well.
My main thing is don’t get lazy on screens. Work through screens and not around them. Illinois tends to go under screens and then leaves the shooter open for a practice three-pointer. That can’t happen. Kylan Boswell tends to be one of the main culprits of going under screens.
Boswell has to be great defensively. I want to see the Boswell we saw mid-season where he was locking down teams. He hasn’t been the same in a few weeks. Tre White is going to need to set the tone early too. He has the ability with his length to shut down teams from outside.
If Illinois doesn’t get nasty defensively, this could be a one-and-done scenario. Xavier has the ability to hit some big shots, and we can’t let that happen.