The Illinois basketball program has a chance to advance to the Sweet 16 for back-to-back seasons.
What a wild ride it has been. The Illini looked down and out about a week ago, and now we have a chance to head to the second weekend for the second year in a row.
A tough Kentucky squad stands in the way, though. This is a new Wildcats’ team, as they have a new head coach and a new roster that is hungry. Illinois is going to have its hands full on Sunday evening, but if the Xavier game is any indication, the Illini are going to be prepared.
Here are three keys for the Illinois basketball team to beat the Kentucky Wildcats
1. Keep the same energy on the perimeter
This one might sound confusing to some people, as Illinois didn’t shut down Xavier from the three-point arc. The Musketeers still shot 39.1%.
While we didn’t shut them down, the Illini kept Xavier in check. We didn’t let them go off for a big number. Xavier averages 39.1% from three-point range this season, so they were on that mark. When Illinois allows teams to shoot 40% or better, we are 5-4 this season. That means when opponents shoot worse than 40% from three-point range, Illinois is 17-8.
Kentucky shoots well from distance too. They jack up 25.7 three-pointers per game and hit them at a clip of 37.4%, which ranks No. 66 and No. 23 in the country, respectively.
I love what Illinois did against Xavier. We constantly worked through screens. There was solid communication when Xavier was in transition. Everyone knew their assignments, and we executed them well. If that happens against Kentucky, we can advance to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament once again.
2. Keep pulling the Kentucky big men out
Illinois diced up Xavier with a few plays offensively on Friday night. One of the best plays was when Tomislav Ivisic would come out and do the pick-and-pop.
Ivisic would set a screen toward the top of the key. Kasparas Jakucionis then uses that screen to go around the defenders. Ivisic’s man drops off for help defense, leaving Ivisic open for a three-point shot.
Toward the end of the game, Ivisic’s man, the help defender, started to fake help defend and then drop back onto Ivisic. This left Jakucionis open to drive the lane and get points.
I need to see a lot of this play and others against Kentucky. I have always claimed that Ivisic is the best big man I have ever seen in Champaign. I can’t think of another Illini big man who has ever posed such a threat.
Even when Illinois isn’t doing the pick-and-pop, Ivisic can sneak out to the three-point arc, and he has to be guarded. Kentucky’s big men will follow, and this will leave the lane unclogged for the Illinois guards.
On top of the defense being more spread out, I think having the Kentucky center out on the perimeter will help Illinois tremendously with offensive rebounds. Williams pulled down 13 rebounds against Troy, and I think we can get that number under 10 rebounds on Sunday.
3. Illinois has to take care of the basketball
I didn’t have too many issues with what Illinois did against Xavier. Beating the Musketeers by 13 points in a game that a lot of people I assume had as a No. 11 over No. 6 upset is pretty impressive.
What is kind of even more impressive is the fact Illinois was dominated in the turnover department and still won the game. The Illini finished the first round of the NCAA tournament with 14 turnovers while Xavier only had five turnovers. That is -9 in the turnover department for the Illini.
For the season, Illinois has had a -9 or worse turnover margin now in four games. In the first game against Maryland, we had a -9 turnover margin and lost the game by 21 points, 91-70. In the Nebraska game, Illinois had a -11 turnover margin, and we lost that game by six points, 80-74. In the second game against Maryland, Illinois was destroyed by 23 points, 88-65. We had a -14 turnover margin in that contest.
So, there have been three games prior to the Xavier contest when Illinois had a -9 turnover margin or worse, and we lost those three games by a combined 50 points. The fact we beat Xavier in the NCAA tournament with a -9 turnover margin is mind-blowing.
It likely won’t happen again, though. If Illinois loses the turnover battle by nine turnovers again, then we are going to get blown out of the building.
Kasparas Jakucionis needs to start taking care of the ball a little better. He did have 10 assists, but the six turnovers are a bit much. If he can control the bad basses a bit more, then Illinois should be able to keep the turnover margin in check. I also want to see more steals. Only forcing Xavier into five turnovers is a bit concerning.
Thankfully, Kentucky isn’t good at forcing turnovers. The Wildcats’ opponents only turn the ball over at a clip of 10.2 turnovers per game, which ranks No. 312 in the country. So, let’s hope Illinois can keep the turnover margin in the low negatives. Shoot, if we win the turnover battle, Illinois could be punching our ticket to the Sweet 16.
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