Illinois basketball is trying to get out of the Final Four, but a monster program in UConn is now standing in the way.
The Huskies are a really talented team with one of the most annoying, but talented, coaches in the country, Dan Hurley. It is going to be a tough ask for the Illini to beat UConn, but talent-wise, we can go nose-to-nose with anyone.
Illinois has already played a game against UConn this season. We weren’t too competitive in the game, falling to the Huskies by 13 points back in November. That will change on Saturday, though.
Here are three keys for Illinois basketball to get revenge on UConn in the Final Four
1. Illinois can’t keep Keaton Wagler silent
There are a lot of teams in the country that would fold if their best player isn’t on their game. Illinois isn’t that team, as we have plenty of great options when Keaton Wagler isn’t having his best night.
That can’t be the case in the Final Four, though. Illinois needs all hands on deck, and Wagler needs to be his normal self.
In the first game against UConn, Wagler wasn’t who Wagler is today. He only had three points, one rebound, and one assist on 1-of-3 shooting from the field and 1-of 2 from three-point range.
Wagler got into foul trouble quickly, and he had some turnover issues in that first contest. Only playing 14 minutes is a shocker, too. Brad Underwood hadn’t yet trusted the kid, and it is clear in the stat line.
This is a different Illinois team and a different Wagler than back in November. Illinois has to get Wagler more involved in the game. He doesn’t have to put up massive scoring numbers, but he at least needs to be a big contributor in the other stats.
Wagler is the heartbeat of the Illinois basketball team. If he isn’t going, the program isn’t going.
2. The rebounding battle has to go in favor of the Illini
Illinois has one of the best rebounding teams that I have ever seen come through Champaign. We currently pull down 41.0 rebounds per game, which ranks No. 7 in the country.
With, hopefully, two games left in the season, Illinois is 28-8 overall. When opposing teams outrebound the Illini, we are only 1-4 this season. That means we are 27-4 when we outrebound opponents.
The only win Illinois has had this season when we got outrebounded was over Tennessee. We won that game by 13 points, but somehow were outrebounded by 15 rebounds. It is a crazy stat.
One of the four games that we lost and were outrebounded was the first UConn game. The Huskies won that rebounding battle 43-38. The only UConn player who didn’t have at least two rebounds was a guy who played one minute.
Again, this wasn’t the same Illinois team we see today. In the first game, Andrej Stojakovic and Wagler combined for one total rebound. David Mirkovic had eight rebounds in that game as well. I would imagine all of those numbers are going to be higher on Saturday.
Illinois has to go to our bread and butter. Rebound the basketball, and we will have a chance to knock off UConn.
3. Foul trouble could sway the Final Four greatly
No matter which team has what talent, foul trouble can be the great equalizer. These two teams are both pretty equal, but a big issue in that first game was foul trouble.
Illinois didn’t have a ton of fouls, but Wagler was in foul trouble back in November. When we have our best player not being able to play a ton of minutes, it is going to affect the team negatively.
If Wagler ends up giving Illinois just three points again, then we are going to get run off the court. Moreover, foul trouble would kill Illinois because UConn is a deeper team.
The Huskies went nine-deep on Illinois in the first game, and they did the same against Duke in the Elite Eight. This is a talented UConn team, and they can rotate guys in and out to keep fresh.
There have been plenty of games when Illinois gets a few bad early fouls. We can’t afford that against UConn. If we have anyone get into foul trouble, that could be a serious problem. The Illini have to stay out of foul trouble.