It is kind of wild to say, but Illinois basketball is going for its 13th straight win on Saturday.
This has been an incredible run. The Illini are playing some great basketball without one of our starters, and that run will hopefully continue against a tough No. 10-ranked Michigan State team in East Lansing.
Illinois is going to have their hands full on Saturday. The Spartans might have lost two in a row, but that just gives them more fire to come out and give the Illini everything they have.
There are a few keys that I think will make the difference between an Illinois win and loss on Saturday.
Here are three keys for Illinois basketball to deal Michigan State another brutal loss
1. Keaton Wagler needs to suffocate Jeremy Fears Jr. with his length
Michigan State has plenty of talent, but the lead dog on that roster is Jeremy Fears Jr. He is someone who is going to guide the program and orchestrate the offense.
Illinois has a weapon that is going to be difficult for Fears to navigate, though. While Fears has good size at 6-foot-2, he doesn’t deal with an opposing point guard like Keaton Wagler.
Wagler is going to throw a 6-foot-6 body at Fears. That is a ton of length that will make life difficult for Fears all game long. This needs to be the matchup I see from the jump on Saturday night.
As far as offense goes, I am not too worried about the perimeter with Fears. He is more of a driving point guard. He reminds me of a little more advanced Tracy Abrams. Wagler can keep up with Fears, and when he gets around the rim, it is going to be difficult to shoot over a 6-foot-6 player.
I also believe Wagler’s length can help with clogging passing lanes. It is much tougher to pass around a 6-foot-6 player who is waving his arms everywhere. Let’s see if Wagler can hold Fears to under his season average of 8.9 assists per game.
2. Illinois needs to just win the rebounding battle
I know this might sound like the simplest way to beat Michigan State, but it is kind of wild what you see on the court for the Spartans.
Michigan State is a good rebounding squad. They currently pull down 41.1 rebounds per game, which ranks No. 12 in the country. That is right behind Illinois’ 41.6 rebounds per game, which ranks No. 9 in the nation.
The weird part about Michigan State’s rebounding is that it doesn’t necessarily correlate to victories.
In the last game against Minnesota, in which the Golden Gophers pulled the upset, the Spartans won the rebounding battle 39-23. That is a 16-rebound difference, and they still lost the game.
Michigan State also played a game back in early January against Nebraska when they outrebounded the Cornhuskers by 15 rebounds and lost the game. On top of that, only two times this season has the Spartans not won the rebounding battle, and they lost both of those games, too.
So, it is pretty simple. If Illinois wins the rebounding battle on Saturday, then I think we come away with the victory.
3. Get Jake Davis going early and often
Michigan State is going to come into the game on Saturday focusing on quite a few players. I think Wagler is going to be priority No. 1.
The superstar freshman leads Illinois in points, assists, and steals, putting up a season stat line of 17.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 0.8 steals per game. We also have big-time players like Andrej Stojakovic, Tomislav Ivisic, etc.
While the Spartans are going to give those players most of the attention, I think this is a great opportunity for Jake Davis to continue affecting the Illini.
Davis has been a quiet hero for the Orange and Blue lately. He isn’t talked about when the Illini are brought up, but he has made a huge difference in games.
For the season, Davis is only averaging 5.3 points per game, but he has increased that greatly in the past couple of weeks. Over the past five games, he is averaging 9.0 points and 3.2 rebounds per game while shooting 13-of-31, 41.9%, from three-point range.
I think it is going to be extremely important for Illinois to get Davis going early and often. While all of the focus is on his teammates, he can get into his usual corner three-point spot and just crush the Spartans on Saturday.