4 steps for Illinois football to win the Big Ten West

With a big win over Minnesota on Saturday afternoon, the Illinois football team stays alive for a couple of monumental tasks.

First thing is first, let’s make a bowl game. The Illini needed to beat the Golden Gophers to stay in the hunt for a bowl game in 2023. Illinois now moves to 4-5 on the season, so we just need to win two out of the last three games to go bowling for the second straight year. That hasn’t happened since 2010 and 2011.

Crazily enough, there is also more to play for now that Illinois beat Minnesota. We aren’t out of the Big Ten West and, therefore, a Big Ten Championship game appearance.

Here are the steps for Illinois football to win the Big Ten West

• Step 1 – Win out

Obviously, Illinois has to keep winning. With just three games left in the season, every game is crucial. We have Indiana at home next weekend, which is very winnable. Illinois heads to Iowa the weekend after that, which is tough. That Hawkeyes defense is stout. And then we finish with Northwestern in Champaign. It isn’t the toughest schedule in the world.

Illinois schedule results needed

• Vs Indiana – W
• At Iowa – W
• Vs Northwestern – W

Illinois Big Ten record – 5-4

• Step 2 – Iowa loses to Rutgers

While the Iowa defense is pretty daunting, their offense can’t move the ball. They about dropped a game to Northwestern this past weekend, so falling to Rutgers at home isn’t out of the question. The Scarlet Knights also had a lead at the half against Ohio State. With a loss to the Scarlet Knights and Illinois, that drops Iowa to 5-4 in the Big Ten. We need the Hawkeyes to beat Nebraska in the last game of the season.

Iowa schedule results needed

• Vs Rutgers – L
• Vs Illinois – L
• At Nebraska – W

Iowa Big Ten record – 5-4

• Step 3 – Minnesota wins all but the Ohio State game

The Illini need Minnesota to beat some teams down the stretch. We need them to knock off Purdue next weekend. Ohio State then needs to beat the Golden Gophers so they don’t finish ahead of Illinois in the standings. Minnesota then needs to take down Wisconsin to end the season. With the Illini beating Minnesota this past weekend, a tie isn’t a bad thing.

Minnesota schedule results needed

• At Purdue – W
• At Ohio State – L
• Vs Wisconsin – W

Minnesota Big Ten record – 5-4

• Step 4 – Wisconsin drops two out of three

This might be the toughest step in the process. Illinois needs Wisconsin to drop two out of their final three games. Nebraska can be their only win. The Badgers need to drop games to both Northwestern and on the road against Minnesota. Both are plausible, as these two teams aren’t playing badly and Wisconsin has struggled lately.

Wisconsin schedule results needed

• Vs Northwestern – L
• Vs Nebraska – W
• At Minnesota – L

Wisconsin Big Ten record – 4-5

Final Big Ten standings scenario

With the way I have things playing out above, this would leave a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten West.

• Illinois – 5-4 (wins tiebreaker; 2-0 vs Iowa and Minnesota)
• Iowa – 5-4
• Minnesota – 5-4
• Wisconsin – 4-5
• Nebraska 4-5

Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota would finish 5-4 with Wisconsin and Nebraska coming in at 4-5. Due to the tiebreaker rules, when there is a three-team or more tie at the top, they go to the record of each team against the other tied programs.

Since that is the case, the Illini have beaten both Minnesota, this past weekend, and Iowa, a couple of weeks from now. That means Illinois would take the Big Ten West crown and meet either Michigan or Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. That is when things get really interesting.