Illinois Football: Rookie season prediction for Chase Brown

Chase Brown had one of the best seasons by a running back in the history of the Illinois football program.

In 2021, Brown rushed for 1,005 yards and three touchdowns. He topped that solid year with a monumental 2022 campaign. Brown ended up rushing for 1,643 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final year with the Illini.

Illinois fans hadn’t seen that type of running back in over a decade. Brown’s final year in Champaign caught the eye of the NFL teams. With pick No. 163 overall in the sixth round, the Cincinnati Bengals selected Brown. This is the start of what could be a great NFL career.

But what type of season is Brown about to have as a rookie? He is currently projected as the backup to Joe Mixon, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective in recent years as he was to start his career. This past season alone, Mixon averaged 3.9 yards per carry.

That could mean that Brown will see the field quite a bit as a rookie. My guess is that Brown will end the 2023 season with 115 carries for 483 yards and a couple of touchdowns. That wouldn’t be a bad year whatsoever.

How do those projected Chase Brown numbers compare to other Illinois football rookies in the NFL

The most recent running back example in the NFL is Josh Ferguson. While he isn’t suiting up in the NFL anymore, Ferguson’s rookie year with the Indianapolis Colts in 2016 featured him running the ball 15 times for 20 yards.

Illinois’ single-season rushing record holder, Mikel Leshoure, had a short two-year stint in the NFL. In his rookie year with the Detroit Lions, he had 215 carries for 798 yards and nine touchdowns.

Rashard Mendenhall had one of the longer careers in the NFL for an Illinois running back. He spent six seasons in the NFL, and during his rookie year, Mendenhall played in four games and had 19 carries for 58 yards.

I was always impressed with how long Pierre Thomas stuck in the NFL, considering Illinois only had eight total wins during his four years in Champaign. He played 10 seasons for mainly the New Orleans Saints. During his rookie year, Thomas had 52 carries for 252 yards and a touchdown.

Some other notable Illinois rookie seasons included; Carey Davis (17 carries, 68 yards), Robert Holcombe (98 carries, 230 yards, 2 TDs), Howard Griffith (0 carries, 0 yards), Keith Jones (52 carries, 202 yards, 6 TDs), Jim Grabowski (29 carries, 127 yards, 1 TD), Bill Brown (22 carries, 81 yards), and JC Caroline (34 carries, 141 yards, 2 TDs).

I couldn’t find any stats on Red Grange’s first year with the Chicago Bears, but he did play in five games that were a tour around the country.